Good Morning, This months almost over. The next time we get together to discuss the state of the market it will be December and we’ll be staring the last Fed meeting of the year and Christmas right in the face. Will there be a Santa Rally in 2025? Well that all depends on the Fed. So what do we have going on this week that might influence the Fed with regard to their decision to cut rates? Key macro events this week include October U.S. retail sales and October Producer Price Index data on Tuesday, both of which could help shape expectations heading into the Fed’s final meeting of the year. So expect the market to dip or rally on each piece of news. Then we will have a better idea on where we are heading into the end of the year and whether or not there will be a Santa Rally. Honestly, there is nothing that will take precedence over these events. I know more than a few of you are thinking that the AI valuation issue is the most important thing, but that whole deal is influenced by interest rates as investors use lower rates to justify higher tech stock valuations. It could be said that this whole issue comes full circle with interest rates ultimately affecting tech stock valuations which affect the AI trade which affect the market as a whole. You see the companies most involved in the development of AI happen to be some of the largest companies in the entire market based on market cap. So it could be said, so goes the Fed interest rate decision, so goes the economy, so goes small cap stocks, so goes tech in general, so goes artificial intelligence, so goes the market….. enough said. There’s really no use to overcomplicate things. I think a lot of market pundits do that just to show how intelligent they are. At any rate, I believe in keeping it simple. In the end your results will do all the talking you need to do. I would also remind anyone in this business what the bible says about the subject. Pride goes before destruction and a haughty spirit before a fall. Could that be a fall in the market? I certainly think it could!
The days trading so far has generated the following results: Our TSP allotment is trading higher at +0.95%. For comparison, the Dow is also higher at +0.28%, the Nasdaq +1.71%, and the S&P 500 +0.95%. Praise God for a good day!
S&P 500 rises as AI trade attempts comeback led by Alphabet: Live updates
Last weeks action left us with the following signals: C-Hold, S-Hold, I-Hold, F-Hold. We are currently invested at 100/C. Our allocation is now +14.37% for the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 11/21/25 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 19.4987 | 20.8534 | 105.5027 | 95.9220 | 52.2729 |
| $ Change | 0.0022 | 0.0403 | 1.0338 | 1.8980 | 0.4011 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | +0.19% | +0.99% | +2.02% | +0.77% |
| % Change week | +0.08% | +0.45% | -1.91% | -1.85% | -2.64% |
| % Change month | +0.24% | +0.25% | -3.37% | -5.40% | -2.53% |
| % Change year | +3.97% | +7.06% | +13.53% | +6.40% | +24.77% |
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.