Good Morning, I’d love to tell you that things are settled down this morning but I cannot. There’s just too much junk out there for this market to be settled. We got the Fed out of the way with no surprises and now we should be looking forward to some good earnings, but that sort or market has not been the case for a while now. I certainly wish it was but it is not and it makes things a whole lot more difficult to deal with than they have a right to be. In recent years the government has become more and more divided and whether you want to admit it or not it’s  at the root of a lot of the volatility in todays market. I try really hard not to talk about this because it’s controversial , but it’s nearly impossible not to mention it. If you follow the money it always leads back here. As of today, the US government is shutdown again until the House of Representatives is able to vote on the current budget proposal to fund the government through the end of September which of course is the end of the fiscal year. There are several issues with this. First and foremost, they have split the budget into five bills. They are only voting on four of them. The fifth which funds the department of Homeland Security must be negotiated. You are all either on one side or the other of this issue. So you are well aware of it. The issue goes much deeper than all this. This is just the surface of it. Shall it get into it deeper? I would prefer not to. Whatever I say here won’t change a thing. There is a division in our government that goes much deeper than voting on this bill. This controversial issue is a  result of the clash of two greatly different philosophies that quite frankly cannot coexist. Not since 1860 has such a division of government existed. One need only to look back at the historical record then on congressional debates concerning new states entering the union as to whether they would be slave states or free states. One need only look at the violence in Kansas and Missouri to see how divided things actually were. My point here is not to comment on the issue of that day but rather the division of the government that existed over an issue that was basically unsolvable. How could anyone agree that slavery was a good thing? Ever?  Where did that issue manifest itself the most? Why in the economy of course! There where two distinct visions of how the economy should progress. One powered by slavery and another without.  Those philosophies were unreconcilable and you know the rest. They weren’t talking about Minneapolis then. They were talking about Lawrence! Read about it!! Those who are ignorant of history are doomed to repeat it! So what’s that got to do with today? Again, like 1860, we have two distinct and polar opposite ideologies. We’ve talked about it here for years now. Largely ignored I might add. What are they? Socialism and Capitalism. I said it before. These philosophies do not mix. Thus there is a constant conflict between the two. No matter where you stand, the divide is there and that divide continues to cause market destabilizing geo political issues!  There is one vision of an economy that moves into the future with socialism and one without. They will not mix and eventually one of them will prevail. The only thing we can do is try our best to to trade this market and vote. Violence is not the answer, though many think it is. What side am I on. I am an unapologetic Capitalist. I have yet to find a successful socialist/communist government that has ever existed in history. Folks, until congress starts singing off the same sheet of music we will continue to experience this same type of volatility that we are having now.  It is the reality of todays market. I could go on, but I will not……

So…..where does this all leave us? We have two obvious market moving issues this week. The aforementioned budget debates is congress, earnings and jobs. More than 100 S&P 500 companies are due to report this week, including Amazon and Alphabet. The overall reporting season has been strong thus far, but there have been some high-profile post-earnings sell-offs, including Microsoft. Nonetheless, Deutsche Bank strategists noted this weekend that earnings growth is on track to be the strongest in four years.  On Monday, Disney reported earnings that beat analyst expectations. Wall Street is also awaiting the release of the January U.S. jobs report, due Friday morning. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect 55,000 jobs were added last month. Stocks are coming off a losing session, with the major benchmarks falling after President Donald Trump named Kevin Warsh as his nominee for Federal Reserve chairman. If confirmed, Warsh would replace Jerome Powell later this year. I’m not going to prognosticate. The overall trend is still moving higher. So I will stick with it until my charts tell me no to. 100/C for now.

The days trading so far has left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment is trading in the green at +0.44%. For comparison, the Dow is currently +0.86%, The Nasdaq +0.56%, and the S&P 500 is +0.44%.  Praise God for a day in the green.

S&P 500 rises to start February as traders shake off silver, bitcoin decline: Live updates

Last weeks action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Sell, I-Buy, F-Sell. We are currently invested at 100/C. Our allocation is now -0.73% not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:

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God bless, Scott 

***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.

I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future.

If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com.