Good Morning, Lets get one thing straight. This is a very difficult market to navigate. It has a way of wearing you out even when you are making money. This morning we face a new landmine which is the term we often use for an unexpected or surprise event and this weekends attack on Iran by Israel and the United Sates definitely qualifies. Although it was not totally unexpected this war was still somewhat of a surprise in it’s timing. I watched all weekend as many traders screamed that the sky is falling. Honestly, how do these people make money? How do they live with the threat of the next crisis hanging over their heads? I simply don’t understand. While as I mentioned, this is a difficult market to navigate, events like this aren’t unprecedented. The two gulf wars among others things come to mind. Things like this are part of investing. If you cant handle the stress then you need to leave your money in cash or bonds and be happy with it. You just simply can’t get all torn up every time a crisis of some kind takes place. It’s no good for your health and it’s not good for your capital. What do you do and how do you react when something like this takes place? You get up and calmly start your day. I do so by praying to my Lord and Savior from whom all blessings flow. You can do whatever your normal routine is…. Then I go to my computer, read the updated news, check the futures and wait for the market to open. Honestly, what can you do that will change a thing before the open. Then I hit the charts and deal with it as I would deal with any other problem. It’s a routine part of managing a portfolio. If you invest for any length of time you will have days like these. You approach them as just another day. You look at your charts and let the math tell you what to do while you always keep in the back of your mind that the market has survived and gone on to thrive after many events such as these. Folks, it’s just another day in the office…..

So lets get right to the point. We are fully invested in the I Fund. Do we sell? First lets look at the fundamentals. The leadership that has been causing most of the problems in the middle east has been eliminated. That checks one box. The straight of Hormuz through which a great percentage of the worlds oil supply travels is effectively shut down. Even if the US and their allies manage to keep it open they cannot guarantee the safety of large container and tanker ships travel through the tight passageway. Most if not all shipping companies will not allow their ships to enter this area and have opted to travel around the cape of good hope in Africa instead. So this ain’t over until it’s over. It says  here that the longer this goes on the bigger the drag on the world economy. Here’s to praying that the people of Iran are able to topple their oppressive government and become a free and productive member of the global community of nations. This could end up providing a huge boost to the market and the world economy if all ends well. Keep praying!!!

Next the charts…. The market opened up deep in the red this morning as we all anticipated. However, it has not deteriorated from there. By the matter of fact it has recovered a great deal with the S Fund actually only down a tenth of a point. The I fund is still off a whopping 2% but you must keep in mind that it is greatly influenced by markets that opened while we are asleep. Usually one of two things happen. The I fund follows the US markets or the US markets follow the I Fund. There’s a lot more to it, but those markets have a huge influence on the I fund and right now last nights trading which mostly occurred before the US markets opened has influenced the price of the I Fund.

As far as the charts themselves go (and that’s what I base my decisions on), we currently have the C Fund as a hold, the S Fund as a hold, the I Fund as a hold, and the F Fund as a very weak buy. Folks I do not have much confidence in the F Fund right now. You should see the I fund recover tomorrow morning if the US markets maintain their current course. So what am I going to do?? Nothing! The I fund is a hold and I’m going to hold. I will look at the I Fund again after the close and in the morning and decide whether or not I need to make any adjustments. Let me say this. If I were setting on the sidelines I might be inclined to buy the I funds dip should the war go well between now and the morning. Of course, if he chart turns down and sells the I will sell. NO PANIC.  I’m going to go enjoy my day.

The days trading so far has generated the following results: Our TSP allotment is currently off -2.39% but that is reflecting the Monday opening of the Asian and European markets. I fully expect that to be a different picture on Tuesday morning. For comparison, the Dow is off -0.41%, the Nasdaq -0.21%, and the S&P 500 is -0.30%. I know these are all down, but with the exception of the I Fund, things are holding up pretty good all considered. I thank God for that.

Dow tumbles 250 points on Iran attacks, but is off the worst levels of the session: Live updates

Last weeks and this mornings trading has left us with the following signals: C-Hold, S-Hold, I-Hold, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 100/I. Our TSP allotment is now -0.16% for the year not including the days results.

God bless, Scott 

***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.

I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future.

If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com.