Good Morning, Is there anyone that thinks this market isn’t news driven right now? This is what things have clearly evolved to be in the 2000’s. Every one has a computer or phone and most have both giving them instant access to news and trading. In most cases there is not even the delay of a phone call to make a trade. Add this to computer algorithm trading and you have the perfect recipe for what unfortunately has become the norm. Big market swings based on news events. Sell or buy immediately based on whatever the latest news story is that market players are focused on. Many times these reactions seem n0t to be anything other than panic. The trading is either based on the fear of being left behind or the fear of being caught in the next big bear market. Nonetheless, the Key word here is fear! It’s definitely a sell quick or buy first then ask questions later mentality. Then after that, take the time time to answer the questions and realize you may have overreacted. So next that must be corrected and it goes on and on. Smart phones have put power in the hands of the average Joe that only stock brokers had in the past. This is both a good and a bad thing. I like to use the analogy of cutting grass. Most everybody has a lawn and a lawn mower and while they all think they are experts, very few of them are actually landscapers… A quick drive around the neighborhood will tell you who knows what their doing and who doesn’t. This is no different, a new piece of news comes out and it’s sell or buy based on what? Fear and worry. Have you ever heard experienced traders talk about climbing a wall of worry? This is what they mean and it is the reason that markets often become extended either one way or the other farther than we think they should. At least for me, this is a toxic mix. Inexperienced investors plus high speed computer trading equals volatility and there you have it.
Today the market is swinging higher again on news that President Trump said there were productive talks with the Iranians over the weekend. Now all those people who panicked and sold on Friday are rushing to get back in so their not ‘left behind’. Weekends use to be a time of rest but now they are a real adventure. No one wants to hold stocks over the weekend unless they have a seat of the board of exchange and can trade after hours. Rinse and repeat. Rinse and repeat….. Sprinkle concerns in about how this is affecting inflation and the world economy and you have yet another week of news driven trading. Folks, the only way you can see through this is by using intermediate to long term indicators. For the most part, short term indicators are worthless as the are subject to the wild swings we described above. So were does that leave us……extended. Extremely extended to the downside. You name the indicator and that is where it is. Fear and Greed? Extreme Fear. The volatility index, well that one reached over 30 on Friday (bear market territory) but has now retreated to 24.5 which is still high. Put/Call ratio?? Very high at 0.810…. For those you you that don’t know a put is a futures option to sell. The bottom line here is that anything you look at is (not to overuse the word) extended to the downside. This condition became markedly worse on Friday. Why? There was a combination of traders not wanting to hold anything over the weekend due to the war and options expiration which occurred on Friday. That means that traders holding puts to sell at a certain price had to sell as they options they owned expired on that day. Now that it’s Monday and the news is good they will reenter those positions. That was always going to happen…. although it was a little extreme as many if not most of the options that were held were options to sell due to all the geo political stuff going on. Options expiration days are always volatile. Add that to the inexperienced traders not understanding why the selling was so extreme and you have what you experienced on Friday. Barring a completed disaster, the market was always going to bounce today meaning in my book that Friday was an excellent buying opportunity. Those who panicked and sold were cannon fodder for experienced traders. For those in our group, I totally understand how nervous this can make you when your dealing with precious retirement money, but in then end, what choice do you have other than to be invested if you want to grow your portfolios? Things will improve once the war is over, but for now it is what it is and we must deal with it or bury our money in the sand and wait f0r another day. The only thing I know to do is what I have done for my entire life and that is to trust in God and my charts…… Enjoy todays bounce. It’s certainly much better than Fridays sell off…..
The days trading so far has left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment is trading higher at +2.35%. For comparison, the Dow is adding +1.98%, the Nasdaq +2.26%, and the S&P 500 +1.78%. Praise God for a day in the green!
Dow jumps 900 points at the open after Trump says U.S. and Iran have held ‘productive’ talks: Live updates
Last weeks trading left us with the following signals: C-Hold, S-Hold, I-Hold, F-Sell. We are currently invested at 100/I. Our allocation is now -11.15% for the year not including todays gains. Here are the latest posted results:
| 03/20/26 | Prior Prices | ||||
| G Fund |
F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund | |
| Price | 19.7678 | 20.7592 | 104.3866 | 97.1559 | 55.4744 |
| $ Change | 0.0022 | -0.1658 | -1.6022 | -2.2150 | -1.3229 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | -0.79% | -1.51% | -2.23% | -2.33% |
| % Change week | +0.08% | -0.51% | -1.88% | -1.27% | -2.27% |
| % Change month | +0.22% | -2.38% | -5.32% | -6.53% | -11.01% |
| % Change year | +0.92% | -0.59% | -4.68% | -3.24% | -0.03% |
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