Good Afternoon, I’m doing this a day early. I have a hectic schedule this week as I’ll be heading out for vacation next week. Plus, not that I have to tell you, but we’ve got a lot going on. One bit of housekeeping before we get started. My daughter Jacqueline Smith will publish the blog in my absence. Wayne will do the analysis. Yes no last name as he prefers to stay out of the spotlight. I will say this about him. He helped develop our current system and he’s without a doubt the best analyst that you never heard of (and he likes it that way). If your like a hard core technical analysis then he’s your man. Of course, I will monitor TSP along with a myriad of other investments that I am responsible for. Thanks to Elon Musk and Star Link I will never be off line……. So that’s that.
We have another big week on tap. It seems like each one gets bigger and will cumulate with an end to the war in Iran. Unless you’ve been under a rock or off the grid with no internet in a place like I like to vacation then you know that the hardliners in Iran are getting stupid again. They have until Wednesday to make a deal with the U.S. before they are bombed back into the middle ages where some of them belong. So the big question is, will they make the deal? You honestly don’t know with these folks. Either way they will eventually make a deal. A deal they can’t refuse…. right now our only wish is for the Iranian people to be prosperous and free without nuclear weapons, but these hardliners are desperate to hang onto power. How desperate? Well we already know they killed over 40,000 of there own people. Based on their brutal track record they can never have nuclear weapons. I could get into why they are the way that they are but I think I’ll avoid that conflict for now. Lets just say that I do not agree with their ideology and leave it at that. I wouldn’t be surprised if they cut a deal by Tuesday nor would I be surprised if they refused. Obviously, a peace deal would be great for the market. We’ve already had a taste of that. Will there be more selling if the bombs fly? Probably a little. However, I think the market is pricing in a positive outcome to this conflict and by positive I mean positive for the US and US markets. As we discussed in an earlier blog, the market has been extremely accurate in predicting the outcome of every war we’ve been involved in and as I already said, it has predicted a positive outcome for this one. So either way, I think we’ll be fine. Well, that is if you like roller coasters. Just keep praying that God will see us through this thing! Here are the market moving events for the week.
Week ahead calendar
All times ET.
Monday, April 20
Earnings: Steel Dynamics
Tuesday, April 21
8:15 a.m. ADP Weekly Employment change (04/04)
8:30 a.m. Retail Sales (March)
10:00 a.m. Business Inventories (February)
10:00 a.m. Pending Home Sales (March)
Earnings: Capital One Financial, Interactive Brokers Group, United Airlines, Intuitive Surgical, Tractor Supply, RTX, Genuine Parts, Halliburton, 3M, Equifax, Synchrony Financial, Danaher, UnitedHealth Group, Northern Trust, Northrop Grumman, GE Aerospace, D.R. Horton, Quest Diagnostics
Wednesday, April 22
Earnings: United Rentals, Raymond James Financial, Crown Castle, ServiceNow, International Businesses Machines, Lam Research, Kinder Morgan, Texas Instruments, CSX, Tesla, Packaging Corporation of America, Southwest Airlines, Boeing, Philip Morris International, CME Group, Boston Scientific, Elevance Health, Vertiv, Teledyne Technologies, AT&T, Otis Worldwide, GE Vernova
Thursday, April 23
8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (04/18)
9:45 a.m. S&P Global PMI Manufacturing preliminary (April)
9:45 a.m. S&P Global PMI Services preliminary (April)
Earnings: Baker Hughes, Ameriprise Financial, Verisign, Newmont, Digital Realty Trust, Intel, Principal Financial Group, Hartford Insurance Group, Edwards Lifesciences, Union Pacific, Nasdaq, Dover, American Express, Roper Technologies, CBRE Group, Snap-On, West Pharmaceutical Services, Thermo Fisher Scientific, PG&E, Honeywell International, Dow, PulteGroup, NextEra Energy, Lockheed Martin, Keurig Dr. Pepper, Huntington Bancshares, Freeport-McMoRan, CenterPoint Energy, Comcast, Blackstone
Friday, April 24
10:00 a.m. Michigan Sentiment final (April)
Earnings: SLB, Procter & Gamble, Charter Communications, Norfolk Southern
Here’s to praying that everything will over by Wednesday and if not that God will send his children’s enemies away in confusion and total defeat.
Fridays trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment posted a gain of +1.34%. For comparison, the Dow added +1.77%, the Nasdaq +1.52%, and the S&P 500 +1.21%. It was a pretty nice day and pretty nice week. We praise God for that!
S&P 500 notches first close above 7,100, Nasdaq posts longest win streak since 1992: Live updates
Last weeks action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-buy, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 100/I. Our allocation is now -0.40% for the year. Here are the latest posted results:
| 04/17/26 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 19.8322 | 21.0773 | 114.4069 | 108.9131 | 62.1880 |
| $ Change | 0.0024 | 0.0803 | 1.3610 | 2.0891 | 0.7646 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | +0.38% | +1.20% | +1.96% | +1.24% |
| % Change week | +0.08% | +0.55% | +4.55% | +5.62% | +3.12% |
| % Change month | +0.20% | +0.90% | +9.20% | +9.82% | +10.04% |
| % Change year | +1.25% | +0.94% | +4.47% | +8.47% | +12.07% |
We’ll see where oil goes Monday. Is is the straight of Hormuz Open or is it closed? Does Iran even have the ability to close it? Does anyone care? Will he price of oil head back up? I don’t think anything will be answered definitively until Wednesday and maybe not then. One thing that’s pretty certain though. If the bombs drop it is a serious doubt whether Iran will have the ability to close it again even if they want too. It says here the oil will flow one way or the other. There are too many rich countries involved that need it to move. Who knows, maybe those in leadership in Iran (whoever they are) will come to their senses. Maybe they will agree to live and let live. I seriously doubt it but you just never know. I pray it ends soon and we can all prosper. Peace of Jesus! That’s all for me for a few weeks. Have a great week and may God continue to bless your trades!
