Good Evening!

As we discussed here yesterday, the ECB (European Central Bank) met today and released their statement. While that statement indicated that they would maintain interest rates at historic lows (-0.02%), it was a little foggy about their QE (Quantitative Easing Program) that the market players were waiting to hear about. As a result the market started to sell off. Later in the day, several rumors started to circulate that the ECB would officially announce a QE program in January. Similar rumors circulated the last time the ECB met as well so there was nothing new here to digest. As a result, the market tailed off in the afternoon and ended slightly in the red for the day. The I Fund, which was our main concern for the day ended with a -0.33% loss while the S Fund ended the day with a -0.27% loss. While I have to give the S Fund the nod for the day, there wasn’t enough difference between the two to decide whether our move to the I-Fund was prudent or not. Only time will tell. As I said yesterday. It’s going to be a long month. As a result of the negative action, TSP posted a small loss on the day, while the more defensive minded AMP was flat.

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Wall Street ends with slight losses, energy weighs again

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The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Neutral, I-Buy, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 50/C, 50/I. Our allocation is now -0.15% on the year, not including the day’s results. Here are the latest posted results: 

12/03/14
Fund	G Fund	F Fund	C Fund	S Fund	I Fund
Price	14.5941	16.6992	27.3312	35.93	25.1486
$ Change	0.0008	-0.0003	0.1096	0.2953	-0.0397
% Change day	+0.01%	+0.00%	+0.40%	+0.83%	-0.16%
% Change week	+0.03%	-0.41%	+0.36%	-0.03%	-0.44%
% Change month	+0.03%	-0.41%	+0.36%	-0.03%	-0.44%
% Change year	+2.15%	+6.08%	+14.48%	+6.71%	-1.63%
	L INC	L 2020	L 2030	L 2040	L 2050
Price	17.4611	23.0199	24.98	26.5871	15.1047
$ Change	0.0121	0.0365	0.0529	0.0679	0.0425
% Change day	+0.07%	+0.16%	+0.21%	+0.26%	+0.28%
% Change week	+0.02%	+0.02%	+0.02%	+0.03%	+0.03%
% Change month	+0.02%	+0.02%	+0.02%	+0.03%	+0.03%
% Change year	+3.83%	+5.62%	+6.48%	+7.06%	+7.40%

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Let’s take a look at the I Fund as it is the greatest area of concern in our allocation. (Chart courtesy of Stockcharts.com) Of course the analysis is by yours truly…..

If I had to give a specific description of this chart, I would would say that is moderate buy signal that is weakening somewhat. Key upper resistance to watch is at the 64.90 level and key lower resistance is around 63.50. It will give us a pretty good hint as to where this chart is going if either is breached. 

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Again, today was more of the choppy action that we anticipated in December as the market encounters upper resistance. Notice, I did not say it was forming a top, though it may be. Topping is a process and not something that happens in a day or two. Top calling is best left to those that are foolish enough to do it. As for the rest of us, we will continue to follow the trend and get out of the market when it gives us a tangible reason to do so. That’s all for tonight. May God continue to bless your trades.

Have a nice evening.

God bless,

Scott