Good Evening,
The market experienced its worst day today since the October sell-off with energy and small caps leading the way down. I’m not overly concerned at this point, as the damage to our charts is minimal. Given the positive seasonality that’s at our back I don’t expect the selling to last more than a few days at this point. Remember that our analysis from November indicated that any gains we might get in December would be hard earned. So far, that’s exactly what’s taking place. As reactive traders, we’ll keep watching our charts and see where they take us. Our TSP allotment suffered a moderate loss today while the more defensive minded AMP experienced a small loss on the day.
The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Buy, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 50/C, 50/I. Our allocation is now +0.03% on the year not including the day’s results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 12/05/14 | |||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 14.5957 | 16.6819 | 27.3459 | 35.9886 | 25.1594 |
| $ Change | 0.0008 | -0.0406 | 0.0458 | 0.1519 | 0.0266 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | -0.24% | +0.17% | +0.42% | +0.11% |
| % Change week | +0.04% | -0.51% | +0.42% | +0.13% | -0.40% |
| % Change month | +0.04% | -0.51% | +0.42% | +0.13% | -0.40% |
| % Change year | +2.16% | +5.97% | +14.54% | +6.88% | -1.58% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 17.4637 | 23.0277 | 24.9909 | 26.601 | 15.1138 |
| $ Change | 0.0048 | 0.0200 | 0.0294 | 0.0379 | 0.0250 |
| % Change day | +0.03% | +0.09% | +0.12% | +0.14% | +0.17% |
| % Change week | +0.03% | +0.06% | +0.07% | +0.08% | +0.09% |
| % Change month | +0.03% | +0.06% | +0.07% | +0.08% | +0.09% |
| % Change year | +3.85% | +5.65% | +6.53% | +7.11% | +7.47% |
Let’s take a look at the C Fund today: (Chart courtesy of stockcharts.com)
The PMO generated a Neutral signal for the C Fund with the downward crossover of its EMA. Also, price dropped below its lower trend line. I currently read this as no more than price slowing its rate of ascent. Of course, we always have to look for it to go lower. If it does, support is set at 2020. It that is breached, Katie bar the door. Then again, that’s the reason we check our charts! Once again, I don’t look for that to happen. However, in the event that it does, we need to be ready. All in all, this chart reflects weakness in the current market as price continues to come up against resistance.
The bottom line is that this market is in need of a little rest if it is to move higher. Sooner or later, that rest will turn into something more. Our charts will tell us when that time has come. However, we must respect that the overall trend still remains up until the charts tell us otherwise. That’s all for tonight. Keep praying for our group! Have a nice evening.
God bless,
Scott
