03/31/2015

Good Evening, I thought we might see some down side today after yesterday’s window dressing but we got a little more than I anticipated. About all I can say is that the market didn’t give up all of yesterday’s gains. The negative action sealed the deal on a negative month. Seasonally speaking, we have about one more good month before things traditionally slow down and some folks start repeating that old mantra “Sell in May and go away”. Back in November and December I said that 2015 would be more choppy than 2014 and that I thought we would be fortunate if we made a profit of 5% on the year. I’m sticking with that prediction (which, by the way, is the only one that I intend to make). Either way I’ll stick to the charts and react to the action that comes! The day’s trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment lost -1.135% and AMP fell back -0.697%. For comparison, the Dow dropped -1.11%, the Nasdaq -0.94%, the S&P -0.88%, AT&T was -0.97%, Alaska Air -0.03%, Facebook -1.18%, and Apple closed at -1.54%. I thank God that we made it another month without being forced to sell. We lived to fight another day!

 

Wall St. retreats but S&P, Nasdaq post quarterly gains

 

The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 05/C, 32/S, 63/I. Our allocation is now +2.68% on the year, not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:
03/30/15
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.6837 17.0574 27.6684 38.4062 25.8994
$ Change 0.0023 -0.0060 0.3367 0.4785 0.0183
% Change day +0.02% -0.04% +1.23% +1.26% +0.07%
% Change week +0.02% -0.04% +1.23% +1.26% +0.07%
% Change month +0.15% +0.32% -0.71% +1.65% -0.28%
% Change year +0.46% +1.52% +1.85% +5.81% +6.94%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 17.6595 23.4375 25.53 27.2533 15.5141
$ Change 0.0350 0.1067 0.1503 0.1869 0.1181
% Change day +0.20% +0.46% +0.59% +0.69% +0.77%
% Change week +0.20% +0.46% +0.59% +0.69% +0.77%
% Change month +0.09% +0.00% -0.02% -0.01% -0.03%
% Change year +1.20% +2.35% +2.92% +3.31% +3.71%
Now, let’s take a look at the charts.

C Fund: Price again dropped under its 50 day moving average but still remains well within the ascending channel. This chart remains on a neutral signal with two out of four indicators in a negative configuration. All signals are annotated with fluorescent green circles.

1

S Fund: The S fund held up relatively well today. Although price dropped it remained well above its 20 EMA. It even held above its 5 EMA! The overall chart remains at neutral with the MAC D and PMO both in negative configurations. However, this chart would not need much improvement to become a buy. All signals are annotated with fluorescent green circles.

2

I Fund: The I Fund moved to an overall Neutral signal today with the PMO and MAC D generating sell signals. Also of note: price closed well below its 20 EMA. This chart definitely suffered some technical damage today. All signals are annotated with fluorescent green circles. 

3

F Fund: The F Fund keeps rolling along. It seems that the good action in bonds did indeed predict some choppy action is stocks. This chart is a buy and continues to strengthen. All signals are annotated with fluorescent green circles.

4

With the exception of the size of the dip, I wasn’t really surprised by today’s action. April 1st, which is the first day of a new month and the first day of a new quarter, is traditionally a strong day for the market so we’ll see if we can’t catch a bounce and make some or all of today’s dip back. Praise God for His guidance! Have a great evening! See you tomorrow.
God bless,
Scott8-)


Written By

Scott Grimes

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