Good Evening,
My what a difference a day makes. Today the market followed the now familiar pattern of bouncing right back after a big sell off. I’m not really sure that there was a valid reason for yesterday’s selling and I’m not really sure there was a good reason for today’s buying. The media said that traders were encouraged by rumors that there is yet another deal to save Greece. Greece is saved!! Greece is saved!!! Is this another Greece is saved rally? I guess it’s only fair that we get back what we gave up when we had the last “Greece is lost” selloff. The only thing that is sure about this whole mess is that the Greek and Interest Rate increase issues are not going away anytime soon. The end result of all this is that the bears were squeezed yet again and the under-invested bulls were scrambling to put money back to work. Sound familiar? You think they’d all learn what is going on by now. The pattern of buying the dip after a sell off has just become so obvious that no one is getting excited about it anymore. Trying to second guess this market has been a losing proposition since 2009. You can blame the central bankers or whoever you want to blame, but the simple fact is the trend has been up for six years. All you can do (yes I know this is at least the 15th time) is watch your charts and stay invested until the trend changes. Right now, the only thing you really need to know is that the trend isn’t going down.
Today, we gained back most of the ground that we gave up yesterday and are again sitting on a nice gain for the month of May. That is, if we can just hold it! The day’s trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment moved back up +0.929%. For comparison, the Dow added +0.67%, the Nasdaq +1.47%, and the S&P 500 +0.92%. Praise God for another good day!
Tech, healthcare lead Wall St. higher; Nasdaq hits record
The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are now invested at 29/C, 37/S, 34/I. Our allocation is now +4.54% for the year not including today’s gains. Here are the latest posted results:
| 05/26/15 | |||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 14.728 | 16.9545 | 27.9976 | 38.2642 | 26.6358 |
| $ Change | 0.0033 | 0.0691 | -0.2902 | -0.3682 | -0.3986 |
| % Change day | +0.02% | +0.41% | -1.03% | -0.95% | -1.47% |
| % Change week | +0.02% | +0.41% | -1.03% | -0.95% | -1.47% |
| % Change month | +0.14% | -0.48% | +1.10% | +1.56% | -0.06% |
| % Change year | +0.76% | +0.91% | +3.06% | +5.42% | +9.98% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 17.7424 | 23.6326 | 25.7764 | 27.5323 | 15.6935 |
| $ Change | -0.0327 | -0.1296 | -0.1854 | -0.2291 | -0.1508 |
| % Change day | -0.18% | -0.55% | -0.71% | -0.83% | -0.95% |
| % Change week | -0.18% | -0.55% | -0.71% | -0.83% | -0.95% |
| % Change month | +0.26% | +0.46% | +0.57% | +0.66% | +0.72% |
| % Change year | +1.67% | +3.21% | +3.91% | +4.37% | +4.91% |
Let’s hit the charts.
C Fund: The C Fund posted a nice gain today with price moving back above both resistance in the 211 area and its 20 EMA. Yesterday we said that the C Fund would need a strong day to remain on a buy signal and that’s what it got with all indicators remaining in positive configurations.
S Fund: Today small caps were comparable to the rest of the market so the S fund was able to post a nice gain. Price was able to move back above its 20 EMA and all indicators remained in positive configurations.
I Fund: The I Fund posted a strong day with price moving back above the lower trend line and closing right on its 20 EMA. It is worth noting on this chart that support in the 66.80 area was tested and held. This chart remains on an overall Neutral signal with the PMO , MAC D and VTX indicators in negative configurations.
F Fund: Price moved back above its 100 EMA today. This positive action pulled the PMO and VTX into positive configurations which moved the F Fund to an overall Neutral signal. Price has a lot of damage to repair before we will see a buy signal here.
Like I said yesterday, a lot of smoke and no fire. We had a big move down yesterday followed by a big move up today……. and the end result? We are right about were we started. The good thing is that we are hanging onto most of our gains for the month. Give God all the thanks, glory, and praise!!! That’s all for tonight! Have a nice evening and I’ll see you tomorrow.
God bless,
Scott
