Good Evening, Investors were in a good mood this morning, running things up right off the bat as they ignored a sell off in media and the downgrade of Apple. The sell off in media was spurred by an almost 10 Percent drop in Disney which disappointed market players with it’s earnings report. The report actually beat analyst estimates for profit but disappointed on revenue. Give me a break! Disney is a money making machine. With Disney Shanghai under construction and the new Star Wars movie coming out in December, what is not to like? I think they were foolish to sell their shares! I own a position in Disney and I’m sure not selling mine. My point is not to talk about my investments on the street, but rather to let you know what’s actually going on under the surface. Sometimes the selling is something that will have long lasting effects and sometimes it is not. In this case, I think it is not and as they say, my money is where my mouth is. ETF’s like we trade in TSP are a different thing. We buy and sell them more on what they are going to do in the short term. On the other hand, unless you are a day trader, individual stocks are purchased for what they will do in the long run. It is important to know the difference. Often a good stock or Fund is sold off for no valid fundamental reason. When that is the case, it is usually evident in the corresponding chart. That’s just another good reason not to get caught up in buying and selling based on emotions. At any rate, the market leveled off and managed to finish the day in the green. Albeit, it was well off the highs of the day. Nevertheless, it was a positive day and we’ll take it!
The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment gained +0.3914%. For comparison, the Dow slipped -0.06%, the Nasdaq added +0.67%, and the S&P 500 gained +0.31%. Praise God, our TSP allotment carried the day!
Tech leads Nasdaq, S&P 500; Disney sparks media selloff
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Sell, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 33/C, 33/S, 34/I. Our allotment is now +0.10% on the year not including the days gains. Here are the latest posted results:
| 08/04/15 | |||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 14.7884 | 16.9248 | 27.9474 | 37.8489 | 26.2905 |
| $ Change | 0.0009 | -0.0508 | -0.0625 | -0.0352 | -0.0099 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | -0.30% | -0.22% | -0.09% | -0.04% |
| % Change week | +0.02% | -0.06% | -0.50% | -0.53% | -0.16% |
| % Change month | +0.02% | -0.06% | -0.50% | -0.53% | -0.16% |
| % Change year | +1.18% | +0.73% | +2.88% | +4.28% | +8.56% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 17.7782 | 23.6064 | 25.7042 | 27.4217 | 15.612 |
| $ Change | -0.0080 | -0.0207 | -0.0285 | -0.0343 | -0.0210 |
| % Change day | -0.05% | -0.09% | -0.11% | -0.12% | -0.13% |
| % Change week | -0.07% | -0.19% | -0.26% | -0.31% | -0.35% |
| % Change month | -0.07% | -0.19% | -0.26% | -0.31% | -0.35% |
| % Change year | +1.88% | +3.09% | +3.62% | +3.95% | +4.37% |
Lets review the charts: (All signals annotated with Green Circles)
C Fund: Price closed right on resistance at 210. The PMO whipsawed back to a positive configuration. However, the MAC D is just a tad on the negative side so this one is still neutral. Another positive day and the overall signal will change back to buy. One thing to keep in mind is that most of our indicators are flat right now making them subject to whipsaws. Signals can change like the wind until the market breaks one way or the other. 
S Fund: Price is still in the same trading zone that it has been in for the several sessions. The action has been good enough to move the MAC D back into a positive configuration and also to turn the PMO up. A Few more positive days could bring the PMO to a positive crossover of it’s EMA and move this chart back to neutral. For now though, it’s still a sell.
I Fund: Price moved back above it’s 50 EMA and pulled the 5 EMA back up through the 50 in the process. This chart continues to strengthen which is evident by an SCTR that has now improved to 83.4.
F Fund: Priced dropped out of the ascending channel moving back below it’s 100 EMA. The VTX has turned down and is moving toward a bearish signal and the Williams %R is on the way down as well. The recent weakness in the F Fund is clearly evident by it’s dropping SCTR that is now at 53.8. This weakness in bonds is likely due to the threat of higher interest rates.
The ball is now in the bulls court. We’ll see if they can produce some follow though. That’s all for tonight. Have a nice evening!
