Good Evening, We got our oversold bounce today. Are we putting in a bottom? Probably not. I say that with the following caveat. I can tell you that stocks are going down. I can tell you that we are in a bear market. What I can’t tell you is exactly when we’ll hit the bottom. What I can do is identify it at an early stage so you will have plenty of time to react to it. Technical analysis can tell you which way the wind is blowing, but it is not a crystal ball. I know a lot of folks in the media predict the future. However, any investor worth his salt will tell you that he doesn’t know anything about the future and you should steer clear of anyone that says he (or she) can. Technical analysis is a tool to manage risk. I think it is the best toll to manage risk. However, there is no tool that will eliminate risk! Which brings me to my point. Todays rally was a nice oversold bounce, but at this point there is nothing in the charts that indicates that it is anything more than that. More than likely there are lot of folks that got sucked back in for some more pain. Either that or they got lucky. Only time and the charts will tell for sure…..

Todays bounce was spurred by stabilizing oil prices. What has been our theme lately??? So goes oil so goes the market. Not too long ago it was all about the Fed and it will be again as we get closer to the next projected rate increase, but for now the spotlight remains on oil.

The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment was steady in the G Fund. For comparison, the Dow gained +1.41%, the Nasdaq +1.97%, and the S&P 500 +1.67%. Not a bad day, but remember, we’re still in a bear market.

Energy leads Wall Street rebound; S&P has best day since December

The days action left us with the following signals: C-Sell, S-Sell, I-Sell, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 100/G. Our allocation is now +0.08% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:

 Lets take a look at the charts: (All signals annotated with Green Circles) If you click on the charts they will become larger!

C Fund: Moving down the lower trend line toward support at 185.00. Clearly in a downtrend!

S Fund: Support  at 75 holding for now. This ones in a clear downtrend…….

I Fund: Moving down the lower trend line toward support at 50 (not shown). Definitely in a downtrend!

F Fund: Bouncing off the upper trend line. Strength in this fund is a reflection of the weakness of stocks. Beware of a Fed interest rate increase here!

Not to sound like a broken record, but our job now is to watch the charts closely for a bottom to form. Have a nice evening and I’ll see you tomorrow!

 

 God bless, Scott

 

***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.

 

 

I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 

 

If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  [email protected].