03/24/17

Good Evening, This morning the market rallied but gave it all up plus some in the afternoon session when it was clear that legislation repealing and replacing Obama Care would not be passed. While the market did sell off it was hardly the reaction that many had anticipated. It seems that investors believed that the market would take a sizeable hit if legislation to repeal and replace Obama Care were not passed.  They also thought that Republicans would work out some kind of deal. They were wring both counts. Why? In the last blog we briefly discussed how the Trump Rally was really about tax reform. Todays failure to repeal Obama Care had an unanticipated effect. It started to attract buyers that see it as a positive event in that it will allow the focus to move on to the most important issue in their eyes. Tax Reform. The rally since November has always been about tax reform. The real selling will only start if it is perceived that tax reform cannot be achieved. It says in this book that tax cuts will be a lot easier to sell than repealing Obama Care. We will see….

The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment managed a small gain of +0.10%. For comparison the Dow lost -0.29%, the Nasdaq added +0.19%, and the S&P 500 slipped -0.08%. I thank God for the small gain on a negative day.

 

Wall Street dips in dramatic session as health bill pulled

 

The weeks wild ride left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Buy, F-Neutral. The I Fund is the only Fund that we currently have a buy signal on so as of the close of business today we bought. Starting Monday morning we will be invested with 100% in the I Fund. I will discuss the chart for the I Fund later, but the main factor that made the I Fund attractive at this time was the fall of the US dollar. I have added a chart for the UUP tonight. I will show you why the I Fund is starting to POP.

Our TSP allocation is now +2.49% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results.

03/23/17 Prior Prices
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 15.2682 17.5788 32.5066 42.0157 26.3273
$ Change 0.0010 -0.0168 -0.0341 0.1376 0.1217
% Change day +0.01% -0.10% -0.10% +0.33% +0.46%
% Change week +0.04% +0.50% -1.34% -2.36% -0.30%
% Change month +0.15% -0.19% -0.62% -2.07% +2.53%
% Change year +0.54% +0.75% +5.29% +2.49% +7.01%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 18.6892 25.0981 27.7942 29.8396 17.0661
$ Change 0.0045 0.0127 0.0222 0.0287 0.0195
% Change day +0.02% +0.05% +0.08% +0.10% +0.11%
% Change week -0.18% -0.43% -0.70% -0.84% -0.98%
% Change month +0.12% +0.11% +0.10% +0.08% +0.06%
% Change year +1.51% +2.53% +3.57% +4.08% +4.54%

 

Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
 
 UUP (US Dollar): The main reason that the I Fund is moving up is the declining dollar. One of the strongest patterns in technical analysis is the head and shoulders pattern. I have annotated this pattern on the Power Shares US Dollar index below. Should this pattern execute it’s downside projection would be 24.40 which is annotated with a blue dotted line. Another supporting factor of the declining dollar is increasing interest rates which put downward pressure on the dollar. With a quarter percent increase already in the bag this month and at least two more projected in 2017 there is little doubt that the dollar will continue to move lower. So what has all this to do with the I Fund? The I Fund is an international fund. A lower dollar makes foreign goods more competitive in the US. This creates a more favorable atmosphere for the I Fund. Palin and simple.

 

C Fund:

 

S Fund:

 

I Fund: All indicators are in positive configurations and most are rising. This coupled with a rising SCTR of 76.7  currently make the I Fund the best TSP fund! The falling dollar will ensure that it stays relatively strong. That’s why we are now 100/I.

F Fund:  Beware the ides of March. With an SCTR of only 16.1 you definitely want to steer clear of this one. If you are feeling defensive the G Fund is a much better place to park your money at this time.

 

We are now 100% I. Our task is to monitor the chart for the I Fund and also the chart for the dollar (UUP). That’s all tonight. Have a great weekend and I’ll see you Monday!

God bless, Scott 8-)
 
 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
 
 
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 
 
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  [email protected]. 

 

 

 

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

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