Good Evening, The market continued lower again today. Although, there was some good fundamental news that could easily support a rally. The closely watched University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading came in in the high 90’s, the jobless report came in lower than last week, and three major banks that reported earnings today blew away estimates. Given that fundamental support I find it hard to say we are heading for a bear market. I am more inclined to say we are in for an overdue correction. Remember one thing as you sort through the news that seems to be driving the action. It is often just the opposite of what you think it is. What do you mean Scott? Good question. The relationship between the results and the news are often not what you think they are. Instead of the results driving the news. Many times the news is written to match the results. After all, the media has to have a reason for what happened on a particular day. Granted, there are times when the news shapes the events but they are an exception rather than the rule. It is important to be able to tell when the news is just noise. That is usually the case when the market does unpredictable things or takes off in an unanticipated direction. That’s when the talking heads are scrambling to explain what has just taken place. The bottom line is this. The Headlines don’t really matter because they are very often unreliable. Price is the only thing that tells the truth 100% of the time. Never ignore the pricing action. So what is it telling us now? Caution is warranted. The bears managed to put together two poor days in a row. Its been a while since they done that. They haven’t been able to close the deal before now. That said, watch the March lows on your charts for key support. If they fall I would be confident in saying we are in for a sizable correction.
The days action left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment followed the market lower at -0.65%. For comparison, the Dow lost -0.67%, the Nasdaq -0.53%, and the S&P 500 -0.68%.
Wall Street Closes in Negative Territory as Financial, Energy Sectors Lead Decline
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are still invested at 100/I. Our allocation is now +2.31% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 04/12/17 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 15.2881 | 17.721 | 32.5273 | 42.3257 | 26.3334 |
| $ Change | 0.0010 | 0.0017 | -0.1225 | -0.4417 | -0.0236 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | +0.01% | -0.38% | -1.03% | -0.09% |
| % Change week | +0.03% | +0.46% | -0.43% | -0.28% | +0.36% |
| % Change month | +0.08% | +0.63% | -0.67% | -1.27% | -0.29% |
| % Change year | +0.67% | +1.56% | +5.36% | +3.24% | +7.04% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 18.722 | 25.1453 | 27.8477 | 29.8992 | 17.1 |
| $ Change | -0.0133 | -0.0373 | -0.0675 | -0.0868 | -0.0575 |
| % Change day | -0.07% | -0.15% | -0.24% | -0.29% | -0.34% |
| % Change week | +0.02% | -0.02% | -0.07% | -0.09% | -0.11% |
| % Change month | -0.03% | -0.18% | -0.34% | -0.43% | -0.51% |
| % Change year | +1.69% | +2.73% | +3.77% | +4.28% | +4.74% |
Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund:
S Fund: The S Fund whipsawed back to a Neutral signal when the MACD moved back into a negative configuration.
I Fund:
F Fund: Yes I admit this has been the place to be in recent days. There will be plenty of time to jump in when the SCTR is stronger. As I have said more than once. I don’t trust a chart with an SCTR below 40. The strength in bonds definitely indicates that investors are moving to safe havens but that can change in a hurry. However, it’s working right now if you feel so inclined. I can’t say with any certainty that it would be a mistake to invest in this fund.
That’s all for this week. The markets will be closed tomorrow for the extended Easter Weekend. We’ll have to keep a close eye on our charts. The uptrend is definitely under pressure! More important than all that stuff is the Easter Weekend that is before us. Scripture tells us that Jesus came that we might have life abundant. It also tells us that God knows what we have need of even before we ask! If we trust in Him He will always provide our needs. I will give you this testimony and those that have been with our group since the mid nineties will provide a second witness. He has never let this group down. With His guidance we have averaged a good return throughout the years. Give Him all the praise for He and He alone is worthy! On Sunday we celebrate a risen Savior who conquered death and the grave. He offers us something much more valuable than the dollars we generate in thrift. In the Bible, Romans 10:9 tells us that if we confess with our mouth and believe in our hear that Jesus Christ is Lord and that God raised Him from the dead we will have everlasting life. If you don’t know already know Him accept Him into your heart and He will change your life forever. I guarantee it! He is risen!!! Hallelujah!! See you on Monday!
