Good Evening, Sometimes during the summer months writing a blog like this become repetitious. Occasionally there is a surprise (world events have a way of doing that) but for the most part it’s just plain boring. A little slightly negative movement on low volume. Today’s action was just that. The negative spin came from energy where investors (Ho Hum….Yawn) decided that OPEC’s agreement to limit oil output would not be enough to keep prices from falling. I think (let me yawn again) that they where worried about Libyan production coming on line. Well yes, but did everyone forget the sleeping giant that is American Shale Oil? Did they overlook the fact that American Oil producers are not part of OPEC? Or that ever time oil prices rise above $50.00 per barrel the amount of active oil rigs in the US increase? All this stuff is way too obvious to me so I have to wonder if it’s not a surprise to me then why is it a surprise to them? And….What about the consumer. Isn’t it a positive thing when they don’t have to pay $4.00 a gallon for gas???? What happened to the days when the talking heads were saying that cheap oil was just another form of stimulus. After all, don’t consumers make up something like 80% of the economy? This is just another example of how the market makes the news and clarifies that the news seldom makes the market…… Enough said, watch the charts and use the news for entertainment. One more thing. If the truth be known the effect of computer algorithms and ETF’s are making trading more like this all the time. Having a short term trading strategy just doesn’t work as well as it used to. Trading used to be more about the psychology of the herd. Machines and ETF’s (Exchange Traded Funds) have taken most of the human emotion out of the equation these days. I hate to say it, but it’s more about having a long term philosophy now. What use to work doesn’t work do well anymore. The trading for the most part is a lot more like summer…. Of course that’s ATS…..According to Scott.
The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment slipped -0.11%. For comparison, the Dow lost -0.24%, the Nasdaq -0.11%, and the S&P 500 -0.12%.
Wall Street slips as energy, financials lose ground
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Buy. We are currently invested with 100% in the I Fund. Our allotment is now +8.85% on the year. Here are the latest posted results:
| 05/30/17 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 15.3345 | 17.8783 | 33.5588 | 43.0009 | 28.0176 |
| $ Change | 0.0038 | 0.0348 | -0.0354 | -0.2480 | -0.0209 |
| % Change day | +0.02% | +0.20% | -0.11% | -0.57% | -0.07% |
| % Change week | +0.02% | +0.20% | -0.11% | -0.57% | -0.07% |
| % Change month | +0.19% | +0.71% | +1.44% | -0.84% | +3.38% |
| % Change year | +0.97% | +2.46% | +8.70% | +4.89% | +13.88% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 18.9201 | 25.5875 | 28.5646 | 30.783 | 17.6634 |
| $ Change | -0.0004 | -0.0101 | -0.0245 | -0.0337 | -0.0239 |
| % Change day | +0.00% | -0.04% | -0.09% | -0.11% | -0.14% |
| % Change week | +0.00% | -0.04% | -0.09% | -0.11% | -0.14% |
| % Change month | +0.52% | +0.81% | +1.14% | +1.29% | +1.41% |
| % Change year | +2.77% | +4.53% | +6.44% | +7.37% | +8.19% |
Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund:
S Fund: The S Fund generated an overall neutral signal when the MACD moved into a negative configuration. We said the buy signal was subject to a whipsaw and we were right. Of most concern is the falling SCTR which is now down to 40.8. As a rule I generally won’t buy anything that’s below 40. That’s the reason I have the blue line there. I will however hold a chart when the SCTR moves below 40 if the other indicators show some momentum.
I Fund: The PMO moved into a negative configuration which generated an overall neutral signal for the I Fund. The SCTR is still a very healthy 85.7 so I’m not very concerned. Right now I view this as consolidation after a nice run. Look for price to move another leg up if it cracks through resistance at 66.20.
F Fund: Price broke through resistance at 109.55 and the SCTR is on the rise. I can’t deny that this one is getting stronger.
Just another boring summer trading day. That’s all for tonight. Have a great evening!
