06/21/17

Good Evening, We seem to be in what I will call a small downtrend at the moment. But remember, big downtrends always start as small ones. That’s the reason we watch all selling closely. Today the offending areas were again energy and banks. It appears that investors have become concerned about how bond yield curves will effect the banking industries margin of profit. If I understand this correctly and I don’t claim to be an expert on bonds, as bond yields move lower banks make less. Whatever! We all know what banking stocks did today! I certainly felt the pain as I have two rather large positions in the financial sector… Oh well, win some, lose some, and some are a draw. The bottom line to all this is that this is a rotational market with a slightly negative bias. Rather than moving out of the market all together money is simply moving out of one sector into another. Right now it appears that the hottest sector is Health Care which I might add is considered a defensive sector. Utilities, another defensive sector has been doing well as of late. If we look at the whole picture it tells us to raise our level of awareness. Not to sell, but definitely to keep a close eye on things.

The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment gave up -0.12%. For comparison, the Dow dropped -0.27%, the Nasdaq gained +0.74%, and the S&P 500 dipped -0.06%. It was really not that bad on the surface but that covered up some really ugly action in banks and energy.

 

S&P, Dow hurt by energy, banks; biotech boosts Nasdaq

 

The days action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Buy, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 100/I. Our allocation is now +9.24% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:

 

06/20/17 Prior Prices
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 15.3544 17.9726 33.9347 43.7503 28.1181
$ Change 0.0010 0.0376 -0.2275 -0.4261 -0.2080
% Change day +0.01% +0.21% -0.67% -0.96% -0.73%
% Change week +0.02% +0.10% +0.16% -0.19% -0.26%
% Change month +0.12% +0.42% +1.15% +1.67% -0.01%
% Change year +1.10% +3.00% +9.92% +6.72% +14.29%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 18.9816 25.7137 28.7622 31.0258 17.8179
$ Change -0.0246 -0.0705 -0.1281 -0.1640 -0.1084
% Change day -0.13% -0.27% -0.44% -0.53% -0.60%
% Change week +0.02% +0.01% +0.00% +0.00% -0.01%
% Change month +0.29% +0.44% +0.62% +0.70% +0.78%
% Change year +3.10% +5.05% +7.18% +8.21% +9.14%

 

Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund: The C Fund generated an overall Neutral signal when the PMO passed down through it’s signal line. I’m not real concerned at this point since price remains right in the middle of an ascending channel and the SCTR is steady.
S Fund:
I Fund: I like the way the SCTR rebounded!
F Fund: The SCTR hit 40 today. As far as I’m concerned that makes the next buy signal here legit. Right now the PMO and MACD are pretty flat so any signals here are subject to whipsaw.
The S&P is still in an uptrend and as long as it is I’m bullish. So full speed ahead and the heck with the bonds! But don’t forget to keep and eye on them though. As I mentioned yesterday they often paint an accurate picture and for that reason alone they bear watching. That’s all for tonight. Have a nice evening and may God continue to bless your trades!
God bless, Scott 8-)
 
 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
 
 
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 
 
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  [email protected]. 

 

 

 

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

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