08/10/17

Good Evening, Big sell off today. You know what? God’s still on the throne. It’ll all be good. Just put your trust in Him. Lets take a look at the current state of things. The threats continued to fly between the US and North Korea today and traders responded with one of the largest sell offs since May. I’m not sure but I think the week so far qualifies as the worst week since November before the Presidential elections. I will avoid writing a book and say that this market was ready to correct anyway. It was at all time highs and stock valuations were stretched. Whether warranted or not, this situation was the perfect excuse to take some nice gains off the table and that’s exactly what traders did. So where will it go from here? I’d have to say that the chances of a correction defined as downtrend of 10% or more have greatly increased. That and the possibility for even a greater decline exist if this situation continues. Of course, if they start lobbing nuclear weapons around money will be the least of our worries.

The days blood bath left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment gave up -1.42%. For comparison, the Dow dropped -0.93%, the Nasdaq -2.13%, and the S&P 500 -1.45%. There have always been sell offs and there will always be sell offs. That is the nature of the market. What is important is to manage them as well as possible. In order to do that you must find the sweet spot to sell. Not to soon and not to late. That is what technical analysis gives us the chance to do, to best manage risk and return.

 

S&P falls 1.4 percent in safety flight on North Korea tensions

The days selling left us with the following signals: C- Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 100/I. Our allocation is now +12.31% for the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:

 

08/09/17 Prior Prices
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 15.4019 18.008 34.5256 43.9537 28.908
$ Change 0.0010 0.0338 -0.0084 -0.2874 -0.1535
% Change day +0.01% +0.19% -0.02% -0.65% -0.53%
% Change week +0.03% +0.11% -0.09% -0.89% -0.50%
% Change month +0.06% +0.28% +0.22% -1.28% +0.10%
% Change year +1.42% +3.21% +11.83% +7.21% +17.50%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 19.0988 25.9447 29.1267 31.4697 18.099
$ Change -0.0070 -0.0223 -0.0453 -0.0598 -0.0408
% Change day -0.04% -0.09% -0.16% -0.19% -0.22%
% Change week -0.04% -0.10% -0.19% -0.24% -0.28%
% Change month +0.05% +0.04% +0.00% -0.02% -0.04%
% Change year +3.74% +5.99% +8.54% +9.76% +10.86%

 

Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund:
S Fund: The SCTR has now dropped to only 19.3 as small caps lead the sell off. Remember this though, small caps will lead us back up when we rebound. So keep a close eye on them. They almost always bottom first.
I Fund: The I Fund generated an overall neutral signal when the PMO and MACD moved into negative configurations.
F Fund: Bonds are strengthening as investors move to safety.
So where do we go from here. First and foremost, we must not panic. We must maintain our discipline. Remember, up to now every decline for the past several years has ended with a V Shaped or close to a V Shaped recovery. Until that pattern is broken we must respect it. What does that mean for us? We are using a very soft set of indicators that will allow us to remain in the market as long as possible and not be subject to whipsaw signals or V Shaped recovery’s. In simple terms, we must not sell too early only to watch the market head back up with the gains that we should have had. We would use harder indicators if we where in a different market. If it were a bear market we would sell quickly. However, until this up trend is broken we must not sell quickly which means our accounts will take a bigger dent before we sell than if we were in a down trending market. Also don’t forget the most important thing of all. Keep praying! I say again, God has never let our group down!! Have a nice evening and we’ll do it again tomorrow.
God bless, Scott 8-)
 
 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
 
 
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 
 
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  [email protected]. 

 

 

 

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

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