Good Evening, Recently we have been discussing how the market is disconnected from the news. We have talked about how computer algorithm trading is shaping the market and about how the market is devoid of the human emotion that used to move it. If today doesn’t convince you of that fact then you probably need to read some other blog. This morning we woke up to the worst mass shooting in modern US history. Ten or fifteen years ago the market would have taken a dive. However that is no longer the case. The machines are programmed to buy bad news and dips and that’s exactly what they did. No emotion! That’s the reason that the market just doesn’t make sense to the casual observer these days…If your not a serious investor it’s better to put your money in one of the L Funds and let it ride. Understanding this market takes work!
The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment slipped back -0.09%. For comparison, the Dow added +0.68%, the Nasdaq +0.32%, and the S&P 500 +0.39%. The dollar strengthened today and that was no doubt a drag on the EAFE. We’ll have to keep a close eye on that trend. If it continues we will more than likely move to the S Fund. The charts will tell us what to do and when to do it……
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Sell. We are currently invested at 100/I but it may be time to adjust our allocation as the action in small caps is improving! Our allocation is now +14.98% on the year not including the day’s results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 09/29/17 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 15.4496 | 18.0354 | 35.2685 | 46.2275 | 29.5957 |
| $ Change | 0.0018 | -0.0011 | 0.1309 | 0.1204 | 0.1562 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | -0.01% | +0.37% | +0.26% | +0.53% |
| % Change week | +0.05% | -0.10% | +0.72% | +1.76% | +0.01% |
| % Change month | +0.17% | -0.48% | +2.06% | +4.26% | +2.52% |
| % Change year | +1.73% | +3.36% | +14.24% | +12.76% | +20.30% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 19.2461 | 26.256 | 29.6461 | 32.1193 | 18.5206 |
| $ Change | 0.0172 | 0.0419 | 0.0749 | 0.0946 | 0.0616 |
| % Change day | +0.09% | +0.16% | +0.25% | +0.30% | +0.33% |
| % Change week | +0.16% | +0.27% | +0.42% | +0.50% | +0.57% |
| % Change month | +0.60% | +1.02% | +1.60% | +1.87% | +2.14% |
| % Change year | +4.54% | +7.27% | +10.47% | +12.03% | +13.44% |
There’s no doubt about it after looking at the charts. Small caps are on the rise and money is moving out of bonds and into stocks. When taking all the charts into consideration it is obvious that it is time to adjust our allocation. We need to be riding the best horse and right now that’s the S Fund. I will put out an interfund transfer alert as we will be adjusting our allocation to 100% S Fund.
