Good Evening,
The bounce we anticipated came today. Now, we will see if we are correct in that the market will not bounce back so easily as it has done the past four years. It is less probable that we will see another V-Shaped bounce as there is not as much FED money to float the market and this is the the slow trading season. I’m not saying it can’t bounce back, but what I am saying is that it’s going to be a lot harder for it to do so with out the same level of FED support that we had in the past. The bulls are going to have to do some serious work to convince me that we are going to make a meaningful run back up. If they do manage to bring the charts back to a buy signal, we will just have to decide whether we want to chase them or not. The closer we get to September the more likely it is that we’ll have a failed bounce. September is historically the worst month of the year for the market. That said here’s what August looks like:
All’s well that ends well on Wall Street. Stocks pushed higher Monday after a choppy morning.
| 08/04/14 | |||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 14.4854 | 16.4428 | 25.3467 | 34.351 | 26.0576 |
| $ Change | 0.0028 | 0.0119 | 0.1810 | 0.2382 | -0.0800 |
| % Change day | +0.02% | +0.07% | +0.72% | +0.70% | -0.31% |
| % Change week | +0.02% | +0.07% | +0.72% | +0.70% | -0.31% |
| % Change month | +0.03% | +0.27% | +0.43% | +0.46% | -1.05% |
| % Change year | +1.39% | +4.45% | +6.16% | +2.02% | +1.93% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 17.1937 | 22.4815 | 24.286 | 25.7663 | 14.616 |
| $ Change | 0.0190 | 0.0501 | 0.0691 | 0.0852 | 0.0524 |
| % Change day | +0.11% | +0.22% | +0.29% | +0.33% | +0.36% |
| % Change week | +0.11% | +0.22% | +0.29% | +0.33% | +0.36% |
| % Change month | +0.05% | +0.02% | +0.03% | +0.03% | +0.01% |
| % Change year | +2.24% | +3.15% | +3.52% | +3.75% | +3.93% |
“We have drawn three progressively steeper rising bottoms lines, and last week two of the lines were violated. Today’s rally briefly penetrated the resistance of the second line, but price closed on the line. Volume contracted, failing to confirm the rally.”
“Conclusion: From the all-time high set on 7/24/14 to the intra-day low on Thursday, the S&P 500 has corrected only -3.8%, which is about the same as the April correction. We would like to see it be more like the January correction, but lately it has been hard to get the market to produce a decent decline. If the market is able to rally and hold above the line of resistance it encountered today, we’d be inclined to think that new highs were coming.” Analysis by Decision Point.
