Good Evening, Today China retaliated with their first (and hopefully last) round of tariffs non US goods. The market predictably sold off. Although, I must say that the selling was a little worse than I expected. There is a lot of talk in the media about the end of the bull market. In fact the Dow and S&P have both entered correction territory defined as s dip of 10 percent or more off of their highs. A bear market would be if you added another 10% to those losses. In other words a dip of 20% or more. I’m not going to spend a lot of time talking about the “Why”. You can read that in the news link below. I am going to talk about the “what”. A look at the charts shows that price is starting to breach key technical levels. In particular the price of the S&P 500 has closed below it’s 200 day moving average. This will surely bring about more technical selling. Yes, the fundamentals are still good but the technical sellers don’t really care about the them. They will sell in mass. Our chart for the S Fund is still clinging on to a neutral signal. It’s price is still above it’s 200 EMA at this time but is moving lower and looks likely to pass through that level unless there is a dramatic turnaround. The most troubling aspect of the chart is the SCTR which has now dropped to just 43.5. It is in a dead fall and looks likely to move below 40. If that in fact happens and the other indicators to include Price, PMO, MACD, and Wms%R remain in negative configurations an overall sell signal will be generated. If that takes place I will sell. Nevertheless, a lot can happen in a day or two so we will let it all play out. Perhaps we’ll have another V Shaped bounce. I doubt it but anything is possible.
The days selling left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment dropped -2.35%. For comparison, the Dow lost -1.90%, the Nasdaq -2.74%, and the S&P 500 -2.23%. As you can see, everything took a big hit…..
Wall Street tumbles on tech sector, trade war worries
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Sell, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now -3.05% for the year. Here are the latest posted results:
| 04/02/18 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 15.6449 | 17.8615 | 36.4846 | 47.3793 | 30.1386 |
| $ Change | 0.0025 | 0.0099 | -0.8346 | -1.1400 | -0.3828 |
| % Change day | +0.02% | +0.06% | -2.24% | -2.35% | -1.25% |
| % Change week | +0.02% | +0.06% | -2.24% | -2.35% | -1.25% |
| % Change month | +0.02% | +0.06% | -2.24% | -2.35% | -1.25% |
| % Change year | +0.67% | -1.40% | -2.99% | -2.24% | -2.32% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 19.5383 | 26.7454 | 30.301 | 32.8745 | 18.9826 |
| $ Change | -0.0746 | -0.1825 | -0.3672 | -0.4734 | -0.3120 |
| % Change day | -0.38% | -0.68% | -1.20% | -1.42% | -1.62% |
| % Change week | -0.38% | -0.68% | -1.20% | -1.42% | -1.62% |
| % Change month | -0.38% | -0.68% | -1.20% | -1.42% | -1.62% |
| % Change year | -0.06% | -0.54% | -1.42% | -1.80% | -2.13% |
