Good Evening,
Profit taking kicked in today. Both the TSP and AMP programs came in flat on the day, stepping back about a tenth of a point. I’m not sure if it’s the computer programs, the day traders, the trading philosophy in general, or all three. However, the market does seem to act a little more like it did prior to 2008 and all the cheap FED money, which will ultimately be a good thing. The problem now is that the FED’s stimulation has driven the market to new highs and the market continues slowly creep ahead setting additional new highs. The result is that nobody is convicted enough to hang in there. Everyone knows that a correction is coming so profit is being taken about as fast as it is earned. The only real way to keep from getting knocked down again once you’ve gotten back up is to day trade and as you know we can no longer do that in Thrift. I can do it on the street, but I prefer not to. While I am not a day trader, I’m not a buy-and-holder either. I really like to do what is working on the charts which are usually short and intermediate term trades with an occasional “long-termer” for good measure. Day trading can bite you so I leave it….well to the day traders… and buy-and-holding will definitely sting you in a normal market. I consider it the worst trading philosophy of all. For the record, I still think that this market will return to the pre-financial crisis days when the quantitative easing program comes to a close. I also expect a real correction to occur during that time as well. That said, I will put my usual disclaimer in and say that while I enjoy talking about future market events, I am not in the business of prognostication. I simply read my charts and do what they tell me. In simple terms, I am a reactive trader. No more, no less…
The major gauges barely budged Thursday, but it was a big day for buyout rumors.
| 07/23/14 | |||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 14.4746 | 16.4508 | 25.9659 | 35.2368 | 26.7713 |
| $ Change | 0.0009 | 0.0007 | 0.0461 | 0.0608 | 0.0438 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | +0.00% | +0.18% | +0.17% | +0.16% |
| % Change week | +0.03% | +0.13% | +0.45% | +0.51% | +0.68% |
| % Change month | +0.14% | +0.13% | +1.47% | -1.47% | -0.33% |
| % Change year | +1.31% | +4.51% | +8.76% | +4.65% | +4.72% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 17.2702 | 22.7668 | 24.6874 | 26.2606 | 14.9355 |
| $ Change | 0.0068 | 0.0210 | 0.0287 | 0.0349 | 0.0223 |
| % Change day | +0.04% | +0.09% | +0.12% | +0.13% | +0.15% |
| % Change week | +0.13% | +0.29% | +0.36% | +0.41% | +0.46% |
| % Change month | +0.23% | +0.31% | +0.31% | +0.29% | +0.30% |
| % Change year | +2.70% | +4.46% | +5.24% | +5.74% | +6.20% |
“Price stayed in the middle of the rising trend channel, slowly moving higher toward the top of the trend channel. The PMO has definitely bottomed, but isn’t in a big hurry to reach for its EMA for a positive crossover. Volume was about average for the day on the SPX.”
“Conclusion: The market traded sideways but managed to squeeze out new all-time highs. Price remains in the middle of the rising trend channel. Short-term indicators are bullish so I would still expect to see a move to the top of the channel. At that point short-term indicators will likely have reached overbought extremes and would better support a pullback.”
