Good Evening, The market shook off the tariff fears today just as we thought it would. That’s not to say their wont be more volatility because there most assuredly will be before this tariff issue is resolved. However, what I am saying is two things.#1 Our economy is strong right now. If there was ever a good time for a trade war this is it. #2 China needs us more than we need them. It only goes to reason that they will run out of bullets before we do given the trade imbalance in their favor. Simply put, they will run out of things to put tariffs on before we do and will have to resort to devaluing their currency to stay in the race which unfortunately is nothing new. China has been labeled as a currency manipulator in the past. I disagree with Jack Ma, CEO of Alibaba (BABA) who stated today that the trade war could go on for two decades. I’m sure (tongue in cheek) that he is free to say whatever is on his mind…. I said it before and I’ll say it again now. China was making too much money off this deal. They won’t walk away from this cash cow any longer than they have to. So how long can we hold out in this trade war? I really don’t know the answer to that question, but I feel certain that we can last longer than they can and I think the market is pricing that in as we speak.
The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment regained some lost ground posting a gain of +0.45%. For comparison, the Dow added +0.71%, the Nasdaq +0.76%, and the S&P 500 +0.54%. Praise God for a day in the green!
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Sell. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now +10.18% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 09/17/18 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 15.8538 | 17.8318 | 41.1982 | 53.8446 | 29.9917 |
| $ Change | 0.0038 | -0.0294 | -0.2299 | -0.6007 | 0.0699 |
| % Change day | +0.02% | -0.16% | -0.55% | -1.10% | +0.23% |
| % Change week | +0.02% | -0.16% | -0.55% | -1.10% | +0.23% |
| % Change month | +0.14% | -0.71% | -0.34% | -1.54% | -0.86% |
| % Change year | +2.02% | -1.56% | +9.54% | +11.10% | -2.80% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 20.0722 | 27.7287 | 32.0522 | 35.0591 | 20.3913 |
| $ Change | -0.0143 | -0.0342 | -0.0794 | -0.1056 | -0.0710 |
| % Change day | -0.07% | -0.12% | -0.25% | -0.30% | -0.35% |
| % Change week | -0.07% | -0.12% | -0.25% | -0.30% | -0.35% |
| % Change month | -0.07% | -0.17% | -0.41% | -0.52% | -0.60% |
| % Change year | +2.67% | +3.12% | +4.28% | +4.72% | +5.13% |
I’ve seen Septembers that were a nightmare. So far this one is not that bad. Especially when you take the trade war into consideration. That’s all for tonight. Have a nice evening and may God continue to bless your trades!
