12/20/18

Good Evening, Sometimes you just have to be happy with where your at. I must admit that I wasn’t pleased when I sold at around -4.00%. At the time I noted in that days blog that sometimes you just have to do the right thing and sacrifice for the the future. I also said that if you wanted to get out of a hole you had to stop digging. As time passes I have come to appreciate that decision. While it was painful to sell at the time, the current slide in stocks proves that it is never to late to do the right thing. It’s true that buy and hold worked to perfection during the Fed induced bull market that lasted from the 2009 until now. It’s also true that many folks were fooled by it. Those that have only been trading since 2009 absolutely have no idea what to do with this bear market. Even those of us that traded prior to 2009 were lulled to sleep by one of the longest (thanks to the Fed) bull markets in history. Fortunately we woke up before too much damage was done and remembered the way it used to be. Unlike the aforementioned investors that are panicking we know what to do. Folks, as aggravating as this bear market is, we know from the past that it is an opportunity. I recently quoted the famed investor (probably the greatest of all time) Warren Buffet who said that the stock market is an instrument that transfers wealth from the impatient to the patient. This is exactly what he was talking about. We’ve done this before!!! This is nothing new! We don’t have to buy at the exact bottom. All we have to do is be in when it goes back up. Each day that the market goes down we are making money. The price of equities gets cheaper and cheaper as the value of our capital remains steady or slightly improves. The bottom line is that when the time comes we will be able to buy far more shares than we owned before. And that…..is how it’s done! Moving on….the market continued it’s slide today with the main issues being a possible government shutdown and yesterdays Fed decision/ statement. You can check out the link below for the details…

The days selling left us with the following signals: Our TSP allotment was steady in the G Fund. For comparison, the Dow dropped -1.99%, the Nasdaq -1.63%, and the S&P 500 -1.58%. If you stack that on top of their recent losses it amounts to quite a bit of red ink. Praise God for guiding us to the G Fund. May He continue to bless our trades!

 

Wall St. slides on Fed plans; Nasdaq flirts with bear territory

The days selling left us with the following signals: C-Sell, S-Sell, I-Sell, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 100/G. Our allocation is now -3.92% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:

 

12/19/18 Prior Prices
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 15.9766 18.1009 35.9343 43.8667 26.6855
$ Change 0.0013 0.0451 -0.5578 -0.7637 -0.1973
% Change day +0.01% +0.25% -1.53% -1.71% -0.73%
% Change week +0.04% +0.67% -3.56% -4.16% -1.87%
% Change month +0.16% +1.60% -9.07% -10.92% -4.92%
% Change year +2.81% -0.08% -4.46% -9.49% -13.51%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 19.6638 26.7556 29.592 31.7949 18.2036
$ Change -0.0477 -0.1022 -0.2304 -0.2975 -0.1954
% Change day -0.24% -0.38% -0.77% -0.93% -1.06%
% Change week -0.56% -0.89% -1.83% -2.20% -2.53%
% Change month -1.44% -2.32% -4.78% -5.75% -6.59%
% Change year +0.58% -0.50% -3.72% -5.03% -6.15%

 

 Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund:
S Fund:
I Fund:
F Fund:
This is how a bear growls. Our task now is to monitor our charts for any change in the markets character and not to get sucked in by the first bull trap bounce that occurs. Remember! Some of the biggest bounces occur during bear markets. Until you have an ESTABLISHED uptrend treat them all like dead cat bounces. You don’t have to get in at the exact bottom. Trying to do that can be a risky proposition. All you have to do is get in on the way back up! That’s it! Don’t over complicate things!! That’s all for tonight. have a nice evening and I’ll see you tomorrow.
God bless, Scott Sunglasses
 
 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
 
 
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 
 
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

  • 10/06/25

    Good Afternoon, I am certainly praying for all of you effected by the ongoing government shutdown. I have been there done that and it was no fun. So far the market has shook the shutdown off as it obviously thinks that it won’t last long. My thought is that the market won’t give the shutdown…

  • 09/29/25

    Good Morning, Well this months almost over and so far the major indices are still holding modest gains in the +1.5% range. If we can manage to hold onto or add to those gains we will have achieved what a lot of folks said we could not do. We will have made a profit when…

  • 09/22/25

    Good Morning, Well we got the Fed meeting that we wanted with a quarter point interest rate decrease with the indication that the Fed is planning on two more rate cuts in 2025. As a result, we find ourselves in the odd position of holding a profit in late September. I said in last weeks…