Good Evening, We’ve talked many times in the past about how the market makes the news instead of the news making the market. The media folks always have multiple descriptions available to describe whatever the market is doing at the time. Don’t get me wrong, sometimes they are accurate but many times they are bull. Today they talked about the market being drug down by a bad report from General Electric. It’s been a while since GE has been relevant. Make no mistake, the current market is all about the Trade negotiations with China. Everything else is a side show. As I said in my last blog, the market continues to trade sideways with a slightly negative bias while it waits for this deal. In my humble opinion, that negative bias will continue to intensify the longer we go without a trade deal. The media also talked about (to a lesser extent) the fact that the S&P 500 is trading at the key psychological level of 2800. It has traded at that level for several days. So investors are watching to see when and if that level is breached before they pile on. While the media may have that one partially correct, most folks are not technical investors but fundamental investors and the fundamental investors are waiting for a China Trade deal before they will commit any additional money to this market. The market could be stalled at any level. The fact that it happens to be 2800 is inconsequential to the fundamental investor. That just happens to be where they are waiting for the trade deal with China. A good excuse to take some profits. Don’t get me wrong, it will be a good thing from a technical standpoint if we breach that level, but that is not what is driving this beast. It’s China plain and simple……
The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment slipped -0.33%. For comparison, the was off -0.05%, the Nasdaq -0.02%, the the S&P -0.11%. It was another rough day for small and mid caps.
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now +6.74% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 03/04/19 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 16.0664 | 18.3226 | 40.2007 | 51.4525 | 29.2958 |
| $ Change | 0.0037 | 0.0343 | -0.1560 | -0.4399 | 0.0168 |
| % Change day | +0.02% | +0.19% | -0.39% | -0.85% | +0.06% |
| % Change week | +0.02% | +0.19% | -0.39% | -0.85% | +0.06% |
| % Change month | +0.03% | -0.01% | +0.31% | -0.17% | +0.32% |
| % Change year | +0.46% | +0.99% | +11.82% | +17.00% | +9.67% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 20.2249 | 27.7894 | 31.7669 | 34.5649 | 20.0065 |
| $ Change | -0.0065 | -0.0167 | -0.0506 | -0.0686 | -0.0470 |
| % Change day | -0.03% | -0.06% | -0.16% | -0.20% | -0.23% |
| % Change week | -0.03% | -0.06% | -0.16% | -0.20% | -0.23% |
| % Change month | +0.07% | +0.09% | +0.15% | +0.18% | +0.19% |
| % Change year | +2.72% | +3.72% | +7.19% | +8.55% | +9.75% |
