03/22/19

Good Evening, Whew, what a roller coaster ride. I’m sure the market has had swings like this before but I just can’t remember when. After having one of the best days in 2019 yesterday we had one of the worst today! The market sold off on further concerns of a world economic slowdown. Also, further impacting the today’s selloff was the fact that the bond yield curve inverted. What is that you say? That is when the price of short term bonds (I think 2 year bonds but don’t hold me to it) becomes higher than the price of long term bonds represented by the 10 year treasury bond price. Why is that bad? The first reason is that it squeezes the profit margin of banks when the price they pay for short term money is greater than what they charge for long term loans. The second reason and I might add the reason that the market sold of today is that they say an inverted yield curve has proceeded every recession. While that is true they aren’t telling you the rest of the story. In fact an inverted yield curve has proceeded every recession but there have also been many times that the yield curve has inverted that there has been no recession. In short, an inverted yield curve does not guarantee that their will be a recession. At best it is a reason to possibly raise your caution level. The way I see it, our charts will have us out of the market a long time before a recession kicks in….That’s the reason we watch them on a daily basis!!!

The days blood bath left us with the following results: Praise God our TSP allotment added +0.50% today! Now, if only the market will bounce after this sell off on Monday….. I wouldn’t sweat if you missed the interfund transfer deadline. As I was telling someone today. It could be a blessing in disguise if the market continues to sell off on Monday. My guess is that it will bounce but as they say this it not a risk free business. Nothing ventured nothing gained….. Anyway, for comparison, the Dow fell -1.77%, the Nasdaq -2.50%, and the S&P 500 -1.90%. I will praise God again for his guidance today and pray that things will go well when we enter the C Fund on Monday. The market should be primed for a bounce. We will see…..

 

Wall Street tumbles on global economic slowdown fears

 

The days action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Buy. As of the close today we are invested at 100/C. Our allocation is now +6.19% on the year not including the days gains. Here are the latest posted results.

 

03/21/19 Prior Prices
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 16.087 18.5326 41.1396 51.6121 29.6904
$ Change 0.0012 0.0124 0.4463 0.7085 0.0606
% Change day +0.01% +0.07% +1.10% +1.39% +0.20%
% Change week +0.05% +0.42% +1.17% +0.84% +0.56%
% Change month +0.16% +1.14% +2.65% +0.14% +1.67%
% Change year +0.59% +2.15% +14.43% +17.36% +11.15%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 20.3301 27.9737 32.1324 35.0233 20.2993
$ Change 0.0360 0.0697 0.1610 0.2091 0.1381
% Change day +0.18% +0.25% +0.50% +0.60% +0.68%
% Change week +0.25% +0.32% +0.59% +0.69% +0.77%
% Change month +0.59% +0.75% +1.31% +1.51% +1.66%
% Change year +3.25% +4.40% +8.42% +9.99% +11.35%

 

 Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund:
S Fund: The S Fund generated an overall Neutral signal today when the PMO and MACD moved into negative configurations. Two or more negative signals or the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA  or an SCTR below 40 generate a neutral signal. Any three indicators negative accompanied by both or either the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a sell signal. A buy signal is generated then the 5 EMA is above the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA, One or less indicators are negative, and the SCTR is higher than 40.
I Fund: The I Fund generated an overall Neutral signal today when the PMO and MACD moved into negative configurations. Two or more negative signals or the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA  or an SCTR below 40 generate a neutral signal. Any three indicators negative accompanied by both or either the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a sell signal. A buy signal is generated then the 5 EMA is above the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA, One or less indicators are negative, and the SCTR is higher than 40.
F Fund:
Keep praying that God will continue to guide our hand. This a tumultuous market but He will see us through! That’s all for tonight. Have a nice weekend and I’ll see you Monday.
God bless, Scott Sunglasses
 
 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
 
 
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 
 
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  [email protected]. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

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