Good Evening, I could write a blog a mile long that would take an hour to read but I think I will continue keep it simple. There are a couple of themes that continue to shape this market. First and foremost is the ongoing trade war with China. I keep hearing conflicting stories about how that is going but from what I can tell it’s not going anywhere at the moment and the longer it goes on the more pressure that will be a applied to the world economy. As I have said and yes I will repeat myself, all roads lead to the trade war. Not that the world economy doesn’t have issues of it’s own most of which are in Europe. You can count them off. Auto Tariffs on US Cars sold there. President Trump is threatening to retaliate! The EU’s ongoing feud with Italy about it’s budget. The specter of a Brexit (British Exit From the EU) occurring without an agreement between Britain and the EU which leaves those trading there without direction. Remember that Britain is one of the larger economies in the world and leaves a pretty big footprint. Last you have the fact that the bond yield curve inverted again this week. This usually means that a recession is on the way. A big reason that an inversion occurred (longer bond yields become cheaper than shorter bond yields) is that investors are nervous about the trade war between the US and China. They are buying bonds as a safe haven forcing bond yields to move lower. Remember that I said all roads lead to the trade war. This issue is complex yet simple. While there are indeed separate issues in Europe a trade agreement with China would be enough keep the market moving in a positive direction. It just doesn’t look like that’s going to happen very soon. All that said, as of today nothing has changed. My charts still tell me to stay in bonds so that is where I will stay until they move in another direction…..
The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment posted a gain of +0.26%. For comparison, The Dow was up +0.17%, the Nasdaq +0.27%, and the S&P 500 +0.21%. The strength in bonds does not bode well for stocks!
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Sell, S-Sell, I-Sell, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 100/F. Our allocation is now +11.10% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 05/29/19 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 16.1647 | 18.9141 | 40.2442 | 49.7854 | 29.0128 |
| $ Change | 0.0011 | 0.0218 | -0.2798 | -0.3940 | -0.3920 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | +0.12% | -0.69% | -0.79% | -1.33% |
| % Change week | +0.03% | +0.40% | -1.52% | -1.46% | -1.30% |
| % Change month | +0.20% | +1.25% | -5.34% | -5.87% | -4.15% |
| % Change year | +1.08% | +4.25% | +11.94% | +13.21% | +8.61% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 20.3276 | 27.9137 | 31.7688 | 34.5093 | 19.9398 |
| $ Change | -0.0367 | -0.0694 | -0.1749 | -0.2281 | -0.1509 |
| % Change day | -0.18% | -0.25% | -0.55% | -0.66% | -0.75% |
| % Change week | -0.25% | -0.36% | -0.82% | -0.99% | -1.14% |
| % Change month | -0.83% | -1.21% | -2.87% | -3.47% | -3.99% |
| % Change year | +3.24% | +4.18% | +7.19% | +8.38% | +9.38% |
