Good Evening, My gosh is there anybody out there that is not sick of this trade war? The market distanced itself from record highs set in the past few days after a news report that Chinese officials said they were beginning to have doubts if a long term comprehensive trade deal could be reached with the US and President Trump. Color me skeptical that the Chinese are even interested in making a deal prior to the next election. There is little doubt that they believe that it will be easier to deal with a different administration. I’ll add on a personal note that I don’t think they want want a deal unless it allows them to rip us off the way they have done for years upon years. I hate to say this, but I will. We are better off without a deal if a deal involves going back to the way things were before. Democrats and Republicans alike agree that the prior arrangement was not good!
On positive note, the Fed cut interest rates by another quarter point yesterday but indicated that would be the last cut unless the economy took a drastic turn for the worst. They also said that they would not increase rates unless there was a sharp increase in inflation. I thought the action and the statement were right on and I agree with them totally. This time the Fed got it right! In addition to that positive development, Apple (AAPL) and Facebook (FB) crushed earnings expectations when they reported today. Earnings for the quarter are now expected to decline 0.8%, according to Refinitiv data, an improvement from the 2.2% decline expected at the start of the month.
The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment gave up -0.30%. For comparison, the Dow was off -0.52%, the Nasdaq -0.14%, and the S&P 500 -0.30%. Also, I’ll add today that the S Fund was off -0.61%.
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 100/C. Our allocation is now +9.77% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 10/30/19 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 16.3009 | 19.6386 | 44.4036 | 53.0616 | 31.3021 |
| $ Change | 0.0008 | 0.0354 | 0.1476 | 0.0031 | 0.0251 |
| % Change day | +0.00% | +0.18% | +0.33% | +0.01% | +0.08% |
| % Change week | +0.02% | +0.09% | +0.81% | +0.73% | +0.53% |
| % Change month | +0.14% | -0.25% | +2.46% | +2.63% | +3.51% |
| % Change year | +1.93% | +8.24% | +23.51% | +20.66% | +17.18% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 20.8844 | 28.8232 | 33.6611 | 36.8904 | 21.4708 |
| $ Change | 0.0118 | 0.0189 | 0.0447 | 0.0571 | 0.0368 |
| % Change day | +0.06% | +0.07% | +0.13% | +0.15% | +0.17% |
| % Change week | +0.17% | +0.20% | +0.44% | +0.51% | +0.58% |
| % Change month | +0.71% | +0.81% | +1.76% | +2.07% | +2.34% |
| % Change year | +6.07% | +7.57% | +13.58% | +15.85% | +17.78% |
C Fund:
S Fund:
I Fund:
F Fund: The F Fund generated an overall neutral signal when the 5 EMA passed up through the 50 and 20 EMA’s and the Wms%R moved into a positive configuration. Two or more negative signals or the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a neutral signal. Any three indicators negative accompanied by both or either the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a sell signal. A buy signal is generated then the 5 EMA is above the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA, One or less indicators are negative, and the SCTR is higher than 40.
My indicators and charts still look good. We’ll have to keep and eye on the charts to see what if any effect the latest China trade news has on the overall character of the market. That’s all for tonight. Have a nice evening and may God continue to bless your trades!
