Good Evening,
Things went pretty much like we anticipated. As I noted in earlier newsletters, I expect only moderate gains in November and December. Even at that, I can’t help but be a little disappointed that we didn’t get a little more post election pop. Here’s to being right I guess. Both TSP and AMP managed small to moderate gains on the day. Both allocations have thus far managed to hang on to all their October gains.
Dow, S&P 500 close at records after midterm vote
The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Neutral, F-Sell. We are currently invested at 30/C, 70/S. Our allocation is now -2.35% on the year not including today’s gains. Here are the latest posted results:
| 11/04/14 | |||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 14.5695 | 16.6363 | 26.4393 | 35.2557 | 24.7474 |
| $ Change | 0.0009 | 0.0021 | -0.0746 | -0.2128 | -0.1729 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | +0.01% | -0.28% | -0.60% | -0.69% |
| % Change week | +0.03% | -0.05% | -0.29% | -0.60% | -1.54% |
| % Change month | +0.03% | -0.05% | -0.29% | -0.60% | -1.54% |
| % Change year | +1.98% | +5.68% | +10.74% | +4.71% | -3.20% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 17.3417 | 22.6964 | 24.5455 | 26.0664 | 14.7772 |
| $ Change | -0.0141 | -0.0522 | -0.0739 | -0.0916 | -0.0596 |
| % Change day | -0.08% | -0.23% | -0.30% | -0.35% | -0.40% |
| % Change week | -0.11% | -0.36% | -0.47% | -0.54% | -0.62% |
| % Change month | -0.11% | -0.36% | -0.47% | -0.54% | -0.62% |
| % Change year | +3.12% | +4.13% | +4.63% | +4.96% | +5.08% |
Let’s take a look at the S&P 500 (S Fund). (All charts courtesy of Stockcharts.com)
The C Fund is starting, and I use the word starting, to get extended. We will focus on the PMO for signs of exhaustion at or near its area of resistance annotated by the green line. I expect a lot of sideways to slightly rising action through the holidays as seasonality, not to mention the positive post election period, favor more upside.
There’s nothing really new to add tonight other than the fact that things are still extended. This market could use a little more rest before it tries to move up. If we see significant signs that the PMO is weakening, we will reduce our exposure to protect some of our gains. That’s all for tonight. Keep your eyes on the charts. Have a nice evening!
God bless,
Scott
