05/12/14

Good Evening,

We had a nice low volume oversold bounce today. The talking heads are proclaiming a bottom. A new day has dawned. More records are on their way. Yeah, well OK, if we have a bottom, if we actually had a correction, then where have the S&P and the Dow been??? I have been doing this a long time and I have never seen a correction without the Dow and S&P coming to the party. I guess this could be a first. Kind of like all those blame V Shaped bounces that we had under the Fed’s QE program. Speaking of the devil, I really don’t think there is enough FED support left to bring us another one of those babies. Those of you that have been with me a long time know that I am anything but a bear. However, I have firmly bet against this market. After all, how far can it go? How many records can be set? I’m sorry, but I’m just skeptical of this whole process and I’m definitely not willing to risk my hard earned capital on an oversold bounce. This may be the first time that I have been majorly wrong, but I just can’t see it. I can’t see this market going up more than a few days under these circumstances. I’ll go ahead and say it, I’m a bear. I refuse to chase after this. I am playing defense both here and on the street until I see a correction. Now on to today’s action…

 

 

Happy Monday! Dow, S&P close at record highs

 

 

The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 08/G, 92/F. Our allocation is now -3.44% on the year, not including today’s results. Here are the latest posted results:

05/09/14
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.4066 16.2621 24.4477 33.4037 26.1487
$ Change 0.0009 -0.0223 0.0413 0.1606 -0.1669
% Change day +0.01% -0.14% +0.17% +0.48% -0.63%
% Change week +0.05% +0.04% -0.04% -1.39% -0.29%
% Change month +0.06% +0.32% -0.19% -0.96% +0.01%
% Change year +0.84% +3.31% +2.40% -0.79% +2.29%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 17.0252 22.1425 23.8578 25.2654 14.3149
$ Change -0.0001 -0.0034 -0.0024 0.0000 -0.0010
% Change day +0.00% -0.02% -0.01% +0.00% -0.01%
% Change week -0.03% -0.16% -0.23% -0.30% -0.34%
% Change month +0.01% -0.09% -0.15% -0.20% -0.24%
% Change year +1.24% +1.59% +1.70% +1.74% +1.79%
The S&P 500 (C Fund) actually broke through overhead resistance with a close of 1896.65. I am not surprised that it broke though the resistance, but I will be surprised if it is able to stay above it for more than a few days. Here’s what it’s ETF like today.
0512
It pretty well looks like the $SPX with the exception of the volume which has been added at the bottom for the S&P 500. I will point out that the S&P 500 also broke out of this same zone briefly during the last week of March shortly before dropping to the 1820 level. As the young folks say…Just sayin.  of course, past performance is not indicative of future results. That said, I think it’s gonna tank. We’ll see.  I’m playing defense until it shows me something. I just don’t see any room for it to run. That’s all for tonight. May God continue to guide our hand!
 Scott8-)

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

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