Good Evening,
The bulls started running first thing in the morning, but ended up stumbling into the close. Are traders afraid to hold stocks through the weekend? Has the V-shaped bounce turned into a V shaped whimper? We’ll have to wait until Monday for a more definitive answer to those questions. Here’s what happened today….
Dow wins for the week, but not by much
The week’s poor action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. Up one day then down the next. That’s, well….neutral. We are currently invested at 36/C, 42/S, 22/I. Our allocation is -2.11% on the year not including today’s results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 03/27/14 | |||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 14.3663 | 16.0926 | 24.0069 | 33.9377 | 25.451 |
| $ Change | 0.0009 | 0.0204 | -0.0413 | -0.0516 | 0.0500 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | +0.13% | -0.17% | -0.15% | +0.20% |
| % Change week | +0.04% | +0.43% | -0.90% | -2.80% | +1.55% |
| % Change month | +0.17% | +0.02% | -0.42% | -2.54% | -1.75% |
| % Change year | +0.56% | +2.23% | +0.55% | +0.79% | -0.44% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 16.9244 | 21.9213 | 23.5912 | 24.9724 | 14.1344 |
| $ Change | -0.0005 | -0.0047 | -0.0075 | -0.0101 | -0.0064 |
| % Change day | +0.00% | -0.02% | -0.03% | -0.04% | -0.05% |
| % Change week | -0.06% | -0.22% | -0.33% | -0.44% | -0.48% |
| % Change month | -0.08% | -0.54% | -0.76% | -0.93% | -1.09% |
| % Change year | +0.64% | +0.58% | +0.56% | +0.56% | +0.50% |
The I Fund was the winner again today. We’ll take a look a the C Fund though as it best represents the market as a whole.
The C Fund has established a flatter ascending channel. However, today’s rally encountered resistance around the 1860 level. In the event that this upper resistance is not breached in the next few days, a new descending trading channel could be formed. It resistance is breached, then a less steep ascending price range will be better established which would be good for the short run. The chart remains neutral with the PMO remaining below its 20 EMA. Volume was a little less than average.
All in all, it’s been a tough week with the major indices finishing in or near negative territory. The majority of the charts I am looking at are neutral. I hate to repeat myself, but the abundance of neutral charts are a clear sign of a market that could go either way. It is also a sign of a market that is encountering resistance. After all, as we have said many times in recent weeks, how far can it go? In a nutshell, my current observation is that this is a poor acting market and in the short term it is unclear if a new bottom has been formed. Caution should not be thrown to the wind. We’ll keep a close eye the charts and pray for the best. May God continue to bless your trades!
Have a great weekend and Go Cats!!!
Scott 
