Good Evening,
The market started strong, but ended in the red today. As I say on a regular basis, I’m not a speculative trader, but a reactive trader. However, at the risk of sounding speculative, I will say that this sure seems like a market that’s topping…
Stocks slump at end of strong week
The week’s trading left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 36/C, 42/S, 22/I. Our allocation is now -0.75% for the year. There’s a whole lots of smoke, but very little fire in this market. Could we be topping???? Here are the latest posted results:
| 03/20/14 | |||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 14.3601 | 15.9956 | 24.2975 | 35.0428 | 24.9963 |
| $ Change | 0.0008 | -0.0053 | 0.1465 | 0.0749 | -0.1295 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | -0.03% | +0.61% | +0.21% | -0.52% |
| % Change week | +0.04% | -0.60% | +1.68% | +1.31% | -0.12% |
| % Change month | +0.12% | -0.59% | +0.79% | +0.64% | -3.50% |
| % Change year | +0.51% | +1.61% | +1.77% | +4.08% | -2.22% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 16.938 | 21.9816 | 23.6897 | 25.1085 | 14.2186 |
| $ Change | 0.0094 | 0.0237 | 0.0323 | 0.0391 | 0.0232 |
| % Change day | +0.06% | +0.11% | +0.14% | +0.16% | +0.16% |
| % Change week | +0.23% | +0.54% | +0.68% | +0.79% | +0.87% |
| % Change month | +0.00% | -0.26% | -0.34% | -0.39% | -0.50% |
| % Change year | +0.72% | +0.85% | +0.98% | +1.10% | +1.10% |
Most TSP participants just don’t have much in the way of gains this year. All we can do is take what the market is giving and right now it’s not giving much. It takes as much as it gives. So here’s how it looked today:
C-Fund;
The S&P Chart as that of the DOW continues to hit overhead resistance. In the case of this chart, the resistance is at the 1880 mark. I have annotated that as well as the trend line in blue. Notice the rising wedge pattern that is ready to execute. It will be forced to break one way or the other in the coming days. It is possible that it could break the lower resistance and continue to trade sideways. With the FED now reducing their bond buying program by another 15 Billion per month to 50 Billion Per Month, it is difficult to predict if there will be enough artificial support to keep the market trading sideways. My guess is that there will be, but no one knows for sure how much of a reduction in the Bond purchases will allow the market to actually correct deeper than 5 to 7 percent. What we can do is be cognizant of the fact that it could occur at any time that the charts predict a downturn as they are now. Be ready to react when that inevitable event comes.
The I fund continues to be in the worst shape of any of our charts. Should the market continue to drop, it would be the first of our funds to give us a sell sign. We will continue to watch closely and re-balance our investments if that happens. That’s all for this week. Have a nice weekend. Enjoy some basketball and forget about this market until Monday.
God bless,
Scott
