Good Evening,
The bears gained the upper hand today with a triple digit sell off. The Bulls did manage a small push into the close, but it wasn’t much. The excuses for the selling were the economic news out of China and the ongoing standoff in the Ukraine.
Dow falls nearly 250 points
The day’s sell off left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 36/C, 42/S, 22/I. Our allocation is -0.61% on the year. Here are the latest posted results:
| 03/12/14 | |||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 14.353 | 16.0436 | 24.2427 | 34.9124 | 25.4441 |
| $ Change | 0.0008 | 0.0330 | 0.0138 | 0.1080 | -0.2475 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | +0.21% | +0.06% | +0.31% | -0.96% |
| % Change week | +0.03% | +0.32% | -0.49% | -0.91% | -1.45% |
| % Change month | +0.07% | -0.29% | +0.56% | +0.26% | -1.77% |
| % Change year | +0.46% | +1.92% | +1.54% | +3.69% | -0.47% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 16.9428 | 22.0204 | 23.7425 | 25.1713 | 14.2627 |
| $ Change | -0.0026 | -0.0200 | -0.0260 | -0.0294 | -0.0211 |
| % Change day | -0.02% | -0.09% | -0.11% | -0.12% | -0.15% |
| % Change week | -0.12% | -0.41% | -0.53% | -0.62% | -0.72% |
| % Change month | +0.02% | -0.09% | -0.12% | -0.14% | -0.19% |
| % Change year | +0.75% | +1.03% | +1.21% | +1.36% | +1.42% |
Here is today’s S&P 500: I’ve been having a lot of trouble with the charts since my charting service merged with StockCharts.com. Anyway here it is:
Here’s Carl Swenlin’s analysis:
The support line was penetrated slightly, but it held. Volume expanded considerably, as we would expect.
You may have noticed he is now using the SPY and not the SPX. It is the ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) version of the SPX. Just add a zero onto the end of the prices and you’ll have pretty much the same thing as the index (180.0 vs 1800).We mentioned the last several days that the ascending wedge patterns such as the one we have above usually break downward. I noted that with yesterday’s action that this might be one of the rare cases when it did not. That chance did not come to fruition and the the pattern indeed executed to the downside. Of course, we still have the high probability of a V shaped bounce so we will not hit the eject button just yet. However, in normal circumstances we would give a downside target in the 1800 range for this dip. We will see. Intermediate term indicators still favor more decline.
You can judge for yourselves. These are but a few of the charts I look at on a daily basis. I will continue to follow the action before me and react to it as it unfolds. I never make investment decisions on what I think is going to happen. I only make them on what I see happening on the charts before me. It is not wise to base your decisions on prognostication. They have a term for that. I think it is called gambling… This is a difficult market right now to be sure, but with God’s help we will work through this as we always have. That’s all for tonight. Have a great evening!
God bless,
Scott 
