Good Evening, I’ll get right to the point. I have poured over the charts and some of my most trusted indicators say sell. In addition, the chart for the C Fund generated a new sell signal today. So I will be selling everything and putting it in cash. I was in long term corporate bonds on the street and got hit hard there as well. I’ll be honest with you. I have invested in corporate bonds a lot on the street and have never ever been hit like this. There’s absolutely no reason to sell these bonds but folks are in such a panic that their doing it anyway. So I’ll be selling everything tomorrow and putting it in cash. I thought about treasuries but the yields are at record lows and the prices are at record highs. Should this market quickly reverse as it has for the last umpteen times the money will flow out of bonds and back into stocks like hot air out of a balloon which makes the F Fund a little risky at this time. Therefore, I will be putting in a interfund transfer for 100/G when I finish this blog. OK so what happened? The market attempted a relief rally this morning but it tanked and tanked bad when a report came out that the corona virus had spread to several new countries. Switzerland and Austria come to mind. In addition, it continues to spread in countries such as South Korea and Iran. By the matter of fact Iran’s assistant director of Health even tested positive for the stuff. Am I panicking? Absolutely not! Nonetheless, everyone else is and that is starting to effect corporate reports and the world economy. I said that when that happened it would be time to sell. So can this thing turn around. Yes it can. The last several years will tell you that. That said. I don’t think it will. It looks like the virus will have at least and intermediate term effect on world trade. So I’m going with my indicators and we’ll see if the algorithms can reverse this mess. I don’t think they can but I certainly won’t be surprised if they do……Our task now is to watch our charts for the next safe entry point back into stocks whether that is tomorrow or a month from now or six months from now…..
The days trading left us with the following results. Warning: If there are any small children in the room you may want to cover their eye’s. Our TSP allocation dropped -3.03%, For comparison, the Dow lost -3.15%, The Nasdaq -2.77%, and the S&P 500 -3.03%. And that’s on the back of sizable losses yesterday. To say these two days have been a disaster is an understatement.
The days action left us with the following signal. C-Sell, S-Neutral, S-Sell, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 100/S but will be moving to 100/G at the close of business tomorrow. Our allocation is now +0.12% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:
|Fund||G Fund||F Fund||C Fund||S Fund||I Fund|
|% Change day||+0.01%||+0.35%||-3.34%||-3.03%||-3.96%|
|% Change week||+0.01%||+0.35%||-3.34%||-3.03%||-3.96%|
|% Change month||+0.11%||+0.89%||+0.16%||+1.57%||-2.79%|
|% Change year||+0.27%||+2.83%||+0.12%||+0.95%||-5.44%|
|L INC||L 2020||L 2030||L 2040||L 2050|
|% Change day||-0.72%||-0.82%||-2.08%||-2.49%||-2.84%|
|% Change week||-0.72%||-0.82%||-2.08%||-2.49%||-2.84%|
|% Change month||+0.00%||-0.02%||-0.28%||-0.36%||-0.43%|
|% Change year||+0.01%||-0.03%||-0.73%||-0.95%||-1.14%|