04/05/2022

Good Morning, I’d love to tell you the overall picture has changed and for the better, but the reality the market is facing pretty much the same issues that it was facing when we talked last week. We still have inflation, a hawkish fed, the yield curve inversion, and the war in the Ukraine. Not a lot has changed. There was one major shift in the war in the Ukraine. As Russian forces retreated from the suburbs of Kiev it was discovered they had committed numerous war crimes including such things as the murder, torcher, and rape of innocent civilians. As President Zelensky visited the vacated suburbs he was obviously shaken. So what does this have to do with the market?? There are a few facts that have emerged from this tragedy. #1 Zelensky won’t be able to back down. He would lose all credibility now if he did. #2 The Ukrainians aren’t just surviving they are winning the war which leads to #3 The obvious war crimes will compel Europe to enact more sanctions and deliver more weapons. #4 Due to the war crimes committed by the Russians and the fact that they are actually winning the war the Ukrainians will not be interested in ceding any territory to the Russians meaning the peace negotiations will go nowhere. #5 The Russian economy will start to collapse from the weight of additional sanctions. #6 Russian President Putin who is being backed into a corner will likely resort to even more brutal scorched earth tactics like he used in Chechnya and Syria. The bottom line to all this and the point I wish to make is that this war now has no end in sight and the only way it ends well is if Putin is forced from office by his Generals, the oligarchs or by popular uprising. Right now he still has a huge amount of support as state sponsored news outlets fail to report how badly the war is going. However, the increasing death toll for the Russian army (analysts say possibly as many as 40,000 casualties and mounting) and a failing economy will eventually make it apparent to the Russian people that the war is not going as well as they have been led to believe. So…will the oligarchs, generals and people remove him? How desperate will this unpredictable man become? When and where will this all end? Getting back to the main question, how does this all effect the market? It has created uncertainty and as you know uncertainty is what the market most dislikes. Before the Russians retreated from the suburbs of Kiev investors could see an end to the conflict, a path to peace. Now there is no end in sight. Despite all this, the market has managed to rally off the lows of the first quarter, but even at that many tech stocks are still heavily damaged and have a lot of work to do before they will be anywhere near their highs. The bearish narrative is that the current rally is only an oversized countertrend rally and that the market will resume it’s downward trend in short order. I agree that most of the news is not positive but I think that the majority of the bad news has already been priced into the market at this point. So for now the market is likely to continue to experience high amount of volatility and be headline driven. Our response as always will be to watch our charts and respond to the action that we see which I will add often doesn’t match the headlines. It takes discipline to invest one way when the headlines might be saying something else. In that case I will always defer to the charts as they will give me the greatest chance of success. Are they perfect? No, but when managing risk you must always go with the highest probability of success and that is what the charts give you. Also, never forget keep praying to God who will guide your hand in not only your market decisions but all your decisions. Add all that together and you definitely have the highest probability of success in all things!

The days trading is giving us the following results: Our TSP allotment is currently trading lower at -1.44%. For comparison the Dow is -0.16%, the Nasdaq -1.41%, and the S&P 500 -0.46%. No doubt about it, this market continues to be volatile.

S&P 500 dips following two days of gains as investors assess the Fed’s next move, recession odds

Recent trading has left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy. F-Hold. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now -11.48% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:

04/04/22Prior Prices
FundG FundF FundC FundS FundI Fund
Price16.815119.635969.432476.999937.2301
$ Change0.00340.01130.55750.57060.1147
% Change day+0.02%+0.06%+0.81%+0.75%+0.31%
% Change week+0.02%+0.06%+0.81%+0.75%+0.31%
% Change month+0.03%-0.21%+1.15%+1.67%+1.25%
% Change year+0.47%-5.99%-3.50%-7.72%-5.61%

 Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger. If you want to learn more about technical analysis check out the website StockCharts.com.

C Fund:

S Fund:

I Fund:

F Fund:

My guess is we’ll continue to trade in this range for now. A day or two up and then a day or two down. As I said above, I believe that a lot of the negatives have already been priced into the market. It is surprise headlines that will ultimately shake things loose from the current trading range. We must remain vigilant and ready to react to whatever that news might be whether it moves the market higher or lower. Right now we still have buy signals in the C,S, and I funds and will remain at 100/S until something breaks the market loose. Any of our equity funds are a good place to be right now. So why are we in the S Fund? We are hoping to take advantage of a move higher in the tech sector as tech stocks were the most damaged in the recent sell off. We feel that if the market moves higher that the S Fund will have the most upside because it contains a greater number of these type of stocks. Of course the downside is that if the market moves lower the S Fund will suffer the most. We are also watching the I fund with regard to the war in the Ukraine and the higher dollar. We feel that there may be some opportunity there in the future. If you pushed me to say which chart is the best as of this moment I’d have to say it is the C Fund. The C Fund may offer a slight advantage at this point, but as I already noted any of our equity based funds will offer you the chance to make some gains if the market moves higher. The key is to keep and eye on it and not let things get out of hand. If you see a big news event on your feed then go check your charts and make an assessment as to whether you want to remain where you are or move. Remember though that Panic is not a strategy. Wait until you see a trend change before you make a move. Of course we will always let you know when we move!! Markets like this are never fun but they are part of the game. That’s all for today! Have a great day and may God continue to bless your trades!

God bless, Scott Sunglasses

 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.

I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com. 




  • 03/11/2024

    Good Morning, Stocks dipped at the end of the week as both corporate guidance and economic reports came in mixed. You could take away about anything you wanted to take away from last Fridays jobs report. 275,000 jobs were created last month which led to most of the selling that occurred. However,  unemployment moved up…


  • 03/05/2024

    Good Morning, We find the market selling off this morning with the Dow pulling back 100 points. Stocks pulled back yesterday as well although our TSP allocation in the S Fund came out even on the day. If you ask me the market is just consolidating it’s gains after taking a step higher last week…


  • 02/26/2024

    Good Evening, I’ll keep it simple and get straight to the point. There are two things that are influencing this market the most at this time and they are not new. The first is economic rep0rts and their effect on Federal Reserve Board rate decisions. The last of these rep0rts came in a little hot…