Good Evening,
Would it be wishful thinking to think we are finally getting the real correction that we so badly need? It’s too early to tell, but we’ll keep watching the charts!
Stocks: brutal finale to week
The week’s trading left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Neutral, I-Buy, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 36/C, 42/S, 22/I. Our allocation is now +0.09% on the year not including today’s results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 04/03/14 | |||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 14.3727 | 16.0321 | 24.5316 | 34.8268 | 25.8819 |
| $ Change | 0.0010 | 0.0156 | -0.0271 | -0.2840 | -0.0181 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | +0.10% | -0.11% | -0.81% | -0.07% |
| % Change week | +0.04% | -0.23% | +1.71% | +2.28% | +1.09% |
| % Change month | +0.02% | -0.21% | +0.91% | +0.71% | +0.49% |
| % Change year | +0.60% | +1.85% | +2.75% | +3.43% | +1.24% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 16.9981 | 22.1633 | 23.9233 | 25.3789 | 14.3945 |
| $ Change | -0.0051 | -0.0228 | -0.0349 | -0.0465 | -0.0301 |
| % Change day | -0.03% | -0.10% | -0.15% | -0.18% | -0.21% |
| % Change week | +0.34% | +0.85% | +1.09% | +1.27% | +1.43% |
| % Change month | +0.16% | +0.39% | +0.49% | +0.57% | +0.64% |
| % Change year | +1.08% | +1.69% | +1.98% | +2.19% | +2.35% |
The sell off today was especially brutal in small caps. You may remember that I pointed out that the S Fund is great going up, but bad going down… its loss today was -1.93%. Significantly larger than that of the next closest fund, which was the C Fund at -1.25%. Naturally, the F Fund had a good day at +0.32% following that old adage that when stocks are down, bonds are up. Lets take a look at the charts.
C Fund: The C Fund found resistance at its 20 EMA during today’s sell off. The PMO turned down and is on the verge of making a negative crossover given another day’s negative returns. Volume was again average. The chart is now precariously perched on the verge of giving up its buy signal and entering neutral territory. It remains in a trading range of 1850 to 1890. A break below the 1850 level may signal a more significant correction. We’ll keep our eye on that.
As I have said so many times since the beginning of the year, we are going no where until we get a significant correction. While that may seem painful, it is necessary for a healthy market and will create new opportunities for us to make money. Without it, there will only be more of the same. This market is tired and in need of a rest. It wants to take a rest. Most of the traders want it to take a rest, but up to this point it has been unable to do so being artificially supported by cheap FED money. Is 50 Billion per month the reduction in the FED money that will no longer allow the market to avoid a needed correction? We’ll know next week. If not, then the market will keep bumping into overhead resistance and the taking heads will keep proclaiming a top as they have been doing for the last three years. Yeah right, the only thing I’m listening to are my charts and my Lord. My He continue to guide our hand. Give Him the Praise! Have a great weekend!
Go Cats!!!!
Scott
