Good Evening, Janet Yellen made encouraging comments about interest rates and investors cheered with another rally.
Feel good Wednesday: Markets up 1%
The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Sell, S-Sell, I-Neutral, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 08/G, 92/F. Our allocation is now -3.88% on the year not including today’s results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 04/15/14 | |||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 14.384 | 16.1851 | 23.9515 | 33.2411 | 25.3585 |
| $ Change | 0.0009 | 0.0067 | 0.1613 | 0.1639 | -0.1337 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | +0.04% | +0.68% | +0.50% | -0.52% |
| % Change week | +0.03% | -0.05% | +1.51% | +0.87% | -0.64% |
| % Change month | +0.10% | +0.74% | -1.48% | -3.88% | -1.55% |
| % Change year | +0.68% | +2.82% | +0.32% | -1.28% | -0.81% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 16.9297 | 21.8814 | 23.5178 | 24.8674 | 14.0625 |
| $ Change | 0.0132 | 0.0341 | 0.0471 | 0.0580 | 0.0349 |
| % Change day | +0.25% | +0.08% | +0.16% | +0.20% | +0.23% |
| % Change week | +0.64% | +0.19% | +0.40% | +0.51% | +0.58% |
| % Change month | -1.68% | -0.25% | -0.89% | -1.21% | -1.46% |
| % Change year | -0.01% | +0.67% | +0.39% | +0.25% | +0.13% |
The S Fund led our TSP funds today with +1.23%. It has some ground to make up, but will do so quickly if it can continue to make nice gains like it did today. Decision Point analysis is pretty much the same as ours. They did use the SPY and not the $SPX.
SPY actually got back above the line of resistance it recently fell below. Volume expanded, so the picture is turning a bit more positive. The declining tops line drawn from the April top is the next line of resistance.
For more than a year the market has been characterized by rallies that materialize from very shallow oversold conditions, and it could be happening again. The last “ideal” entry point based on solid oversold readings was in May 2012. It is pretty frustrating. That said, I just don’t feel comfortable with this rally. There are a lot of people that feel the same way and will hit the eject button at the first sign of trouble. It is frustrating to me, but I will wait this out for now. I just don’t see this market acting the same way it did in 2013. Sooner or later the perma bulls will have their heads handed to them on a platter. Our allocation is a little in the red right now, but it is manageable. I do see short term gains as the S&P broke the next line of resistance we discussed yesterday, probably back to the 1890 level. However, even if it makes it there, I am extremely doubtful that gains will be stable enough to hold. After all, we’ve been there twice this year already just to see the gains evaporate into thin air.Even with all the movement, the Dow, S&P, and Nasdag are still in negative territory for the year. We continue to make good money on the street, but we have unlimited trades and alternative investments such as commodities and precious metals that just don’t exist in Thrift. As for as TSP goes, we will get through this as we always have with Gods help. At this point we just have to be patient which is hard to do. That’s all for tonight.
God bless and have a great evening!
Scott
