Good Evening,
After another day of reversals the the major indices closed 2 up and 1 down, but up well on the week…
Stocks end week up over 2%
The shortened week’s action left us with the following signals: C-Sell, S-Sell, I-Neutral, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 08/G, 92/F. Our allocation is now -3.91% on the year not including today’s results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 04/16/14 | |||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 14.3849 | 16.1783 | 24.2026 | 33.6592 | 25.6676 |
| $ Change | 0.0009 | -0.0068 | 0.2511 | 0.4181 | 0.3091 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | -0.04% | +1.05% | +1.26% | +1.22% |
| % Change week | +0.03% | -0.09% | +2.57% | +2.14% | +0.57% |
| % Change month | +0.10% | +0.70% | -0.45% | -2.67% | -0.35% |
| % Change year | +0.69% | +2.77% | +1.37% | -0.03% | +0.40% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 16.9681 | 22.0103 | 23.6951 | 25.0836 | 14.201 |
| $ Change | 0.0384 | 0.1289 | 0.1773 | 0.2162 | 0.1385 |
| % Change day | +0.98% | +0.23% | +0.59% | +0.75% | +0.87% |
| % Change week | +1.63% | +0.42% | +0.99% | +1.27% | +1.46% |
| % Change month | -0.71% | -0.02% | -0.30% | -0.46% | -0.60% |
| % Change year | +0.98% | +0.90% | +0.98% | +1.01% | +1.00% |
Sorry… I know our allocation could be better, but the year is not over. They can say whatever they want, but I believe the day of the buy and holder is coming to an end in this market. Its not a matter of if, but only of when.
Lets take a look at the C Fund…..
C-Fund: We have been watching the current action develop for a few days now. It started by bouncing off of resistance in the 1820 range. Then it breached over head resistance at around 1850. Now as we previously predicted, it is heading toward upper resistance at 1890. My target has been and continues to be 1890. I believe it will be repelled at or near that resistance and will then test lower resistance at around 1850. Should it break that lower resistance the next level of resistance would be at the lower trend line in the 1830 range. If that one is breached it’s Katie bar the door. we’re heading to 1760. As far as today’s specific action goes, the chart continued to trade in the 1850 to 1890 trading channel that it has been in since the middle of February. It has risen to the top of that channel twice since then, only to give up the gains each time. Volume was again average and the price did reclaim its 20 EMA. The PMO is still in a negative cross over and has a lot of work to do before that damage can be repaired. If it repeats it’s recent pattern, the chart will head down again when the PMO reaches is 20 EMA. The bottom line is this, the C Fund continues to trade in the same channel that it has been in and is not making any progress one way or the other. Resolution to this situation will not take place until resistance is breached at either the 1890 level or the 1825 level.
It is my thought that the lower resistance will be breached sometime between May and July. #1 Starting in May we no longer have positive seasonality on our side and #2 we no longer have as much FED money to push things along. For now, I will play it safe. Should I get buy signals in our equity based funds I will be in no hurry to jump back in as the buy signal was short lived the first week of April and I firmly believe it will be so again. So if I know this why am I not timing the market? #1 We don’t have unlimited trades in TSP #2 We don’t have real time trading. We would lose a day before we could jump back in. For these reasons the TSP System effectively discourages day trading. #3 While I am not a buy and holder, I am not a day trader either. This may or may not be our year. I have won that auto tracker contest for the year on two occasions, (which is not why I am in it now, only to track the allocation publicly) but I did so within the frame work of my system. That is the system that produced an average return of over 18%. So why am I saying this, to brag? Absolutely not, I am making a point and that point is that you must stick with whatever system you are using if it is tried and proven. Changing your tactics in mid stream will hurt your performance every time. No system works 100% of the time, but the best ones have the best average over the long haul. There may be some folks ahead of our allocation right now, but there are very few that have done better than we have over the last ten years. We must stick with our system and trust in God. After all, He gave it to us! If you are frustrated with the market know you are not alone. Also know this, whenever you leave Thrift things will be better. Unlimited investment opportunities and trades make it much easier to make money. You will be surprised at the difference! Well, off my soap box for now. Have a wonderful Easter and never forget that Our Savior has risen and is coming back for us someday soon. Give Him the Praise!!
God bless,
Scott
