05/24/2022

Good Evening, What a week it’s been. The volatility is really high! The market is whipping around so much that it leaves you feeling good about your allocation one day and bad the next. Wrong one day and right the next….. but then again that’s the reason we don’t base our investment decisions on the news or our emotions. Both of those things will get you killed in this business. The charts and I mean all the charts are still in a downtrend and that downtrend has to change before we can even dip our toes back in the water. We’ve already talked about inflation and the Fed and all that stuff. Blah, Blah, Blah. If you don’t have it by now then your never going to get it. If your new to this group just go back and read the past half dozen or so blogs and you will be up to date. So the market sold off again today. It was already going to sell off based on inflation and it’s effects on the retail sector, but things got worse when the CEO for the digital advertising company SNAP said that things were now worse than the forward guidance they had issued in their last report. He stated that things were rapidly deteriorating and were now significantly worse. While SNAP is a small company with a small footprint the statement was viewed as significant for the online advertising industry as a whole and that took all things tech and internet down hard. So there you have it. That’s what caused us to go down today. Just be aware that the current high rate of inflation will lead to more negative headlines which will lead to more sell offs. Personally I think the Fed is behind in dealing with this high inflation and I’m not the only one.

Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman said in a slew of tweets Tuesday that with inflation spiraling out of control, aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve are the only way to tame it and that investors will ultimately favor those measures to avoid “economic collapse and demand destruction.”“If the Fed doesn’t do its job, the market will do the Fed’s job, and that is what is happening now,” Ackman said. “The only way to stop today’s raging inflation is with aggressive monetary tightening or with a collapse in the economy.”

I’m just a small fish in a big ocean but Bill Ackman is a big fish and he happens to agree with me….. or do I agree with him? I’ll have to think about that one…… Anyway, we all know things are bad right now. There’s no question about that. We’re in the G Fund and that’s where will stay until be see a confirmed uptrend in the charts. Remember, let it sink in, I said CONFIRMED!! That does not mean one good day! That means more like five good days at a minimum!!! When this market turns around it won’t be in minutes or hours. It will be in days and weeks! So be patient. Don’t get in a hurry. You will have plenty of time to get back in and make money. Don’t worry about what your friends and coworkers are doing. Just remain focused on your Thrift account. Focus on keeping your balance as close to it’s highs as you can and remember that emotions will get you killed in this business. So think with your chart and not with your heart. Also never forget what your priorities are. It’s not important what you make! It’s important what you keep! Better to add a little and keep it than to add a lot and lose it. One more thing. The most important thing. Keep praying and praising our Heavenly Father. He will guide your hand if you seek Him. Scripture says that he doesn’t have plans to hurt you but to prosper you! So be patient!!!!!

The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment was steady in the G Fund. For comparison, the Dow added +0.15%, the Nasdaq fell -2.35%, and the S&P 500 gave up another -0.81%. All in all more of the same. Praise God for guiding us to the G Fund.

S&P 500 falls, Snap warning drags tech as Nasdaq loses 2%

The days action left us with the following signals: C-Sell, S-Sell, I-Hold, F-Hold. We are currently invested at 100/G. Our allocation is now -18.57% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:

05/23/22Prior Prices
FundG FundF FundC FundS FundI Fund
Price16.875718.93760.344663.864634.5341
$ Change0.0042-0.07571.10640.61290.5981
% Change day+0.02%-0.40%+1.87%+0.97%+1.76%
% Change week+0.02%-0.40%+1.87%+0.97%+1.76%
% Change month+0.18%-0.01%-3.69%-5.71%+0.33%
% Change year+0.83%-9.33%-16.13%-23.46%-12.44%

 Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger. If you want to learn more about technical analysis check out the website StockCharts.com.

C Fund:

S Fund:

I Fund:

F Fund:

One more thing. Beware of the rally in bonds! It is not for healthy reasons. Bond prices are only rising because investors are using them as a safe haven. When stocks move higher they will abandon them like rats from a sinking ship. As long as interest rates are rising treasury yields will rise as well and bond yields and bond prices move in opposite directions. This bond rally is not for healthy reasons and will not last. That’s all for tonight. have a nice evening and may God continue to bless your trades!

God bless, Scott Sunglasses

 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.

I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com. 




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