07/26/2022

Good Afternoon, While everything remains the same there are a few things coming that could change the market landscape just a little. One of them is occurring at 2:00PM tomorrow. That is of course the policy announcement and press conference following the all important July meeting of the FOMC. There is little doubt that they will be hawkish and increase the interest rate by .075 to 1.00 points. Of course .001 is considered a point. Then there is also the latest GDP report that will come out on Thursday which will ignite the recession debate anew. It is possible that tomorrows report could signal that the GDP has now dropped for three consecutive quarters. Most investors think that the definition of a recession is when the GDP drops for two consecutive quarters. However many economists disagree on what actually constitutes a recession. They argue that we are not in a recession when the economy created more than 400,000 jobs in the last report. They say there has never been a recession without a loss of jobs. This makes me wonder what they would say if they went to the grocery store with the average Americans checkbook. I think they’d be singing different song! I agree with the Kathie Wood the CEO of ARK Investment who says we’re already in a recession. If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck then it’s probably a duck! I also think that politics has gotten involved in the process of declaring an official recession. After all, what political party wants to be associated with a recession. Not one that I know of…… enough said. You all can draw your own conclusions. I say we’ve been in a recession. Just go to Walmart. Look at the shelves and pay the prices and then tell me with a straight face that we’re not in a recession. All that said it is evident that the volatility will continue and as I have screamed from the mountain tops will not improve until the rate of inflation returns to the Fed target of 2%. I’m not budging on that one, period! As for today the market is trading in the red as it is more than evident that a lot of investors aren’t willing to make any big bets ahead of the two events I mentioned above and you know what, I don’t blame them. We’re going to sit back in the G Fund and let this market come to us. There’s no reason to try to force anything at this point……..

The days trading is generating the following results: Our TSP allotment is steady in the G Fund. For comparison, the Dow is off -0.78%, the Nasdaq -2.04%, and the S&P 500 -1.30%.

Stocks fall after Walmart’s profit warning, dragging other retail names lower

Recent action has generated the following signals: C-Hold, S-Hold, I-Hold, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 100/G. Our allocation is now -24.96% for the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:

07/25/22Prior Prices
FundG FundF FundC FundS FundI Fund
Price16.964419.067560.394764.018232.7163
$ Change0.0043-0.05330.07930.15230.1586
% Change day+0.03%-0.28%+0.13%+0.24%+0.49%
% Change week+0.03%-0.28%+0.13%+0.24%+0.49%
% Change month+0.21%+1.53%+4.87%+6.44%+2.34%
% Change year+1.36%-8.71%-16.06%-23.28%-17.05%

 Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger. If you want to learn more about technical analysis check out the website StockCharts.com.

C Fund:

S Fund:

I Fund:

F Fund:

Keep praying for out group! That’s all for today. Have a great afternoon and may God continue to bless your trades.

God bless, Scott Sunglasses

 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.

I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com. 




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