Good Evening,
Stocks spent Monday creeping back into the game. Gains, while nothing spectacular, were nonetheless solid. Some of the safe haven areas (such as gold and utilities) took big hits as money moved elsewhere. This can be viewed as bullish, although I think I’ll keep my positions in consumer staples and materials to cut down on volatility in my portfolio should the market take another short dip or two…..While I expect the major indices to rise into the end of the year, I also expect the ride to be bumpy at times. Especially when they mention the I word (interest rates)…..
NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
Stocks shook off last week’s Portuguese bank scare on Monday. The Dow finished the day back above 17,000 and just barely missed a record-high close.
The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 25/C, 75/S. Our allocation is now -3.56%, not including today’s gains. Here are the latest posted results:
| 07/11/14 | |||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 14.4638 | 16.4161 | 25.7044 | 35.129 | 26.5021 |
| $ Change | 0.0009 | 0.0068 | 0.0405 | -0.0326 | 0.0189 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | +0.04% | +0.16% | -0.09% | +0.07% |
| % Change week | +0.05% | +0.59% | -0.85% | -2.74% | -2.50% |
| % Change month | +0.07% | -0.08% | +0.45% | -1.77% | -1.33% |
| % Change year | +1.24% | +4.28% | +7.66% | +4.33% | +3.67% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 17.2274 | 22.6522 | 24.5364 | 26.0825 | 14.8227 |
| $ Change | 0.0046 | 0.0116 | 0.0148 | 0.0167 | 0.0104 |
| % Change day | +0.03% | +0.05% | +0.06% | +0.06% | +0.07% |
| % Change week | -0.24% | -0.80% | -1.07% | -1.27% | -1.47% |
| % Change month | -0.02% | -0.20% | -0.30% | -0.39% | -0.46% |
| % Change year | +2.44% | +3.93% | +4.59% | +5.03% | +5.40% |
Here’s what the C Fund looked like today. Chart courtesy of stockcharts.com.
Price remains within the upward trend channel. The channel is not as steep as it was back in May. That’s a good thing as this rate of gain is sustainable for the intermediate term. Given that Goldman Sachs is upgrading their target for the S&P 500, now forecasting the index to reach 2050 by year’s end, this channel could indeed be sustainable through the end of the year. In other words, confirmation of their upgrade which is good for us. The charts short term outlook remains neutral as the PMA is still sporting a negative crossover. However the PMO is bottoming out so I do not expect the Neutral signal to turn into a sell signal. All in all the chart looks strong with the EMA’s in a bullish configuration.
The S Fund managed about the same gain as the C Fund did today which added around +0.46% to our TSP allocation. Tonight I will say good bye to an old friend, my computer, which has been putting out this newsletter since 2001. It has seen better days so it’s time for an upgrade. I’ll be traveling to visit my computer guy who has a brand new tower built that he says is very fast. Hopefully that will help me navigate more efficiently and do an even better analysis! I may put out an abbreviated version of the newsletter for a day or so until I get back and get this thing set up. I’ll definitely let you all know if there are any changes, although it appears that things are going smoothly for now. As always. we’ll keep our eyes on the charts and make the necessary adjustments when they are needed. Have a nice evening and may God continue to bless your trades!
Scott
