Good Evening, The market has swung wildly on Chinese trade negotiation headlines just as we anticipated that it would since we last talked. Many traders were enticed to buy and sell based on the volatility. Those who held found support but not before getting upset stomachs from the wild roll coaster ride! Buyers found a reason to come back to stocks again today as earnings season kicked off with strong reports from Citigroup (C) and JP Morgan (JPM). Although economists are expecting earnings to be off some three percent this quarter of the 33 companies that have reported so far 88.2% have beaten estimates. Earnings season always has a theme. You can watch for it and invest accordingly when it’s established. Although it’s a little early yet to tell for sure this time, an earnings season that establishes a theme of surprise earnings beats always drives the market higher. You really never know given the recent trump tax cuts. Corporations may still have plenty of fuel left from those cuts as well as low interest rates for a great earnings season. Couple that with a possible rate cut by the Fed later this month with no bad China trade news and this market could move higher into December. There is definitely a possible path to move higher. We will see….
The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment gained +1.00%. For comparison, the Dow added +0.89%, the Nasdaq 1.24%, and the S&P 500 +1.00%. Praise God for the good day!
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Neutral, I-Buy, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 100/C. Our allocation is now +6.98% on the year not including the days gains. Here are the latest posted gains. Remember that the TSP office was closed yesterday evening though the market was open.
| 10/14/19 |
|
|
|
Prior Prices |
| Fund |
G Fund |
F Fund |
C Fund |
S Fund |
I Fund |
| Price |
16.2863 |
19.6331 |
43.2731 |
51.4863 |
30.372 |
| $ Change |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
| % Change day |
+0.00% |
+0.00% |
+0.00% |
+0.00% |
+0.00% |
| % Change week |
+0.00% |
+0.00% |
+0.00% |
+0.00% |
+0.00% |
| % Change month |
+0.05% |
-0.27% |
-0.14% |
-0.42% |
+0.43% |
| % Change year |
+1.84% |
+8.21% |
+20.36% |
+17.08% |
+13.70% |
| |
L INC |
L 2020 |
L 2030 |
L 2040 |
L 2050 |
| Price |
20.7465 |
28.5988 |
33.0885 |
36.1484 |
20.9816 |
| $ Change |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
| % Change day |
+0.00% |
+0.00% |
+0.00% |
+0.00% |
+0.00% |
| % Change week |
+0.00% |
+0.00% |
+0.00% |
+0.00% |
+0.00% |
| % Change month |
+0.04% |
+0.03% |
+0.03% |
+0.02% |
+0.01% |
| % Change year |
+5.37% |
+6.74% |
+11.65% |
+13.52% |
+15.10% |
Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund: The C Fund generated and overall buy signal when the 5 EMA moved up through the 50 EMA and the PMO and MACD moved into positive configurations. Two or more negative signals or the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a neutral signal. Any three indicators negative accompanied by both or either the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a sell signal. A buy signal is generated then the 5 EMA is above the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA, One or less indicators are negative, and the SCTR is higher than 40.
S Fund: The S Fund generated an overall Neutral signal when the MACD moved into a positive configuration. Two or more negative signals or the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a neutral signal. Any three indicators negative accompanied by both or either the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a sell signal. A buy signal is generated then the 5 EMA is above the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA, One or less indicators are negative, and the SCTR is higher than 40.
I Fund: The I Fund generated an overall Buy signal when the 5 EMA passed up through the 50 EMA and the PMO, MACD, and Wms%R all moved into positive configurations. Two or more negative signals or the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a neutral signal. Any three indicators negative accompanied by both or either the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a sell signal. A buy signal is generated then the 5 EMA is above the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA, One or less indicators are negative, and the SCTR is higher than 40.
F Fund: The F Fund generated an overall Neutral signal when the PMO, MACD, and Wms%R all moved into negative configurations. Two or more negative signals or the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a neutral signal. Any three indicators negative accompanied by both or either the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a sell signal. A buy signal is generated then the 5 EMA is above the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA, One or less indicators are negative, and the SCTR is higher than 40.
Everything continues to go as anticipated with this trade. Our task remains to monitor our Charts (not the news!) for changes to the market character. That’s all for tonight. Have a nice evening and may God continue to bless your trades!
God bless, Scott 
***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future.
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at KyFan1@aol.com.
