Good Evening,

The day started out somewhat surprising with the market setting new intraday highs. However, some healthy consolidation kicked in this afternoon with the Dow and S&P closing slightly off for the session. I’m a little disappointed as I was hoping for a little more of a pullback. We’ll see if there’s any follow through tomorrow. More than likely the dip buyers will step in, even on this little bit of weakness. Although we reached the market highs from recent lows in near record if not record time, my charts indicate that this market was still a little upside. That will probably result in a small gain in November and December with a pullback of some kind to follow. As usual, we’ll watch the charts and see. Today’s excuse for the less than stellar action was a pullback in construction spending in September. OK, Yeah, whatever. As a technical analyst, I say it’s a healthy pullback of an extended market. Anyway, as a result of the day’s flat action both TSP and AMP closed (Surprise) flat which means at least for today that they held onto their gains from last week. 

Dow, S&P 500 close slightly lower; semis boost Nasdaq

 

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The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Neutral, F-Sell. We are currently invested at 30/C, 70/S. Our allocation is now -1.85% on the year. I might add that we are now close to tied for the worst year we have ever had. If we can add to our gains we will avoid having the distinction of setting a new group low! God be praised! We have been doing this since 1997 and -1.8% is the worst mark we have ever set. By the matter of fact, it is the only loss we have ever posted. God has truly been good to our group! Here are the latest posted results:

10/31/14
Fund	G Fund	F Fund	C Fund	S Fund	I Fund
Price	14.5658	16.6443	26.5168	35.4684	25.1335
$ Change	0.0010	-0.0184	0.3075	0.4867	0.4858
% Change day	+0.01%	-0.11%	+1.17%	+1.39%	+1.97%
% Change week	+0.05%	-0.21%	+2.74%	+3.40%	+3.11%
% Change month	+0.20%	+0.96%	+2.45%	+4.11%	-0.63%
% Change year	+1.95%	+5.73%	+11.06%	+5.34%	-1.69%
	L INC	L 2020	L 2030	L 2040	L 2050
Price	17.3616	22.778	24.6602	26.2068	14.8697
$ Change	0.0485	0.1670	0.2316	0.2826	0.1828
% Change day	+0.28%	+0.74%	+0.95%	+1.09%	+1.24%
% Change week	+0.60%	+1.52%	+1.95%	+2.26%	+2.56%
% Change month	+0.61%	+1.09%	+1.36%	+1.58%	+1.70%
% Change year	+3.24%	+4.51%	+5.12%	+5.53%	+5.73%

We’ll take a look at the C Fund tonight. As I often say, if you look at a chart of the S&P 500, it’s probably the best overall picture of the market you can get. The talking heads often use the Dow, but it is far too weighted to be relevant.

The C Fund is still giving a solid buy signal. Price paused at overhead resistance today. It is also at the upper trend line. It could break through resistance as it follows the upper trend channel higher. The upper trend line is extremely steep so it probably won’t be penetrated by price. The Upper resistance line in red is the one to watch.

The market paused today, but not near as much as it needed to. Once again, we’ll watch to see if there’s any follow through on the selling tomorrow. My bet is that the under-invested bulls will jump all over this pause to get in. That’s all for tonight. May God continue to bless your trades. Have a nice evening.

God bless,

Scott