11/04/14

Good Evening,

We actually got some follow through of yesterday’s consolidation. This is good. It is very healthy and it is necessary if the market is to take another step up. We could use another day like this to shake things up just a little more. All three major indices suffered small to moderate losses today, as did both TSP and AMP. However, the two aforementioned programs are flush with gains from the recent run up and did not have any problem absorbing a little consolidation. Which way the market goes will depend on the outcome of the elections. If the political contests finish to Wall Street’s liking, we may well get a nice pop tomorrow. It’s pretty much about the elections at this time. Something that you may find of interest: The market is entering what has historically been a strong period for a six month stretch beginning in November during the third year of the Presidential cycle. Since 1960, the S&P 500 is 13 for 13 with an average gain of slightly over 18%. Wouldn’t that be nice? We’ll see if the market players can pull that off again…

S&P 500, Nasdaq slip; falling oil prices weigh on energy

 

 

The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Neutral, F-Sell. We are currently invested at 30/C, 70/S. Our allocation is now -1.86% on the year not including today’s results. Here are the latest posted results:
11/03/14
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.5686 16.6342 26.5139 35.4685 24.9203
$ Change 0.0028 -0.0101 -0.0029 0.0001 -0.2132
% Change day +0.02% -0.06% -0.01% +0.00% -0.85%
% Change week +0.02% -0.06% -0.01% +0.00% -0.85%
% Change month +0.02% -0.06% -0.01% +0.00% -0.85%
% Change year +1.97% +5.67% +11.05% +5.34% -2.52%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 17.3558 22.7486 24.6194 26.158 14.8368
$ Change -0.0058 -0.0294 -0.0408 -0.0488 -0.0329
% Change day -0.03% -0.13% -0.17% -0.19% -0.22%
% Change week -0.03% -0.13% -0.17% -0.19% -0.22%
% Change month -0.03% -0.13% -0.17% -0.19% -0.22%
% Change year +3.21% +4.37% +4.95% +5.33% +5.50%
Let’s take a look at the SPY with Decision Point analysis. (Chart courtesy of Stockcharts.com)
After breaking all-time highs, price backed off and traded below resistance at the September high. Volume was about average.
08
Conclusion: The market was in need of a pullback and today we got a small one. It was enough to help short-term indicators began moving out of overbought territory. With the election tonight, it makes sense that the market would be holding back a little. There are various opinions out there regarding how different results will affect the market the rest of the week. In general, the market likes gridlock. 
OK, all we can do now is go watch the election results. Our strategy remains the same. We will watch our charts for any sign of lasting weakness. At this time, everything still looks pretty good. May God guide this group and our country. Have a nice evening.
God bless,
Scott8-)

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

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