Good Morning, The world remains in turmoil. So what else is new. My charts continue to tell me that this market is bottoming but fundamentals would suggest otherwise. Which one do I follow? Of course I will roll with the math as I almost always do. It has and uncanny way of predicted what might happen. While it can’t tell you why something is happening, it will always tell you what is happening and what makes the money. Charts don’t care about why which drives the fundamental Wallstreet traders nuts. Y0u see, why is everything to those folks. To them, you can’t have a what with out a why. As far as I’m concerned that’s flawed thinking that will lead to underperformance. Right now the market is bottoming, That is what. It certainly doesn’t agree with why. We are at war with Iran, the straight of Hormuz is closed, and oil is $108.00 a barrel. Doom, despair and agony right? I guess, but you must balance that with what is without doubt a resilient economy. It seems to be able to overcome anything and right now it is keeping us afloat when every thing else is trying to bring us down. So back to my point, can math (the charts) actually predict market moving events? Sometimes it seems that way but in all actuality it assesses probability. It analyzes risk and reward. For instance, sometimes our charts give us only a small probability of success but in the end we have success and the folks that stayed invested received a big reward for assuming a big risk. That’s the way that it works. Today our charts are telling us that there is a high probability that this market is bottoming and that we need to be invested if we want to experience the reward which is to say the next rally. Again, the fundamentals are not so rosy. It is an ideal situation when market fundamentals and technical analysis agree, but when the market becomes headline driven as the current market is, that is most often not the case. So let me get this straight, no one despite what many market pundits claim, knows what’s going to happen in the next 48 hours. No one!!! President Trump has set an ultimatum that the U.S. will escalate the war it Iran doesn’t make a deal and open the straight of Hormuz by 8:00 PM EST Tuesday. Are the Iranians crazy enough to resist while their powerplants and bridges are blown to smithereens? I think they are. However, while the math cannot predict a deal, it does predict that the outcome will be favorable to the market. Folks, I’m only going with the highest probability of success. Nothing more and nothing less. Keep praying the good will triumph over evil and that we can move ahead with peace and prosperity. Once that has been achieved the charts can move on and assess the probability of success with regard to the next market moving event……

Here’s what on tap for the rest of the week:

Week ahead calendar

All times ET.

Monday, April 6

10:00 a.m. ISM Services PMI (March)

Tuesday, April 7

8:30 a.m. Durable Orders preliminary (February)

3:00 p.m. Consumer Credit (February)

Wednesday, April 8

2:00 p.m. FOMC Minutes

Earnings: Constellation Brands, Delta Air Lines

Thursday, April 9

8:30 a.m. GDP final (Q4)

8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (04/04)

8:30 a.m. Personal Consumption Expenditure price index (February)

8:30 a.m. Personal Income (February)

10:00 a.m. Wholesale Inventories (February)

Friday, April 10

8:30 a.m. Consumer Price Index (March)

8:30 a.m. Hourly Earnings final (March)

8:30 a.m. Average Workweek final (March)

10:00 a.m. Durable Orders final (February)

10:00 a.m. Factory Orders (February)

10:00 a.m. Michigan Sentiment preliminary (April)

2:00 p.m. Treasury Budget (March)

As you can see it’s going to be a busy week with a lot of market moving news. So keep praying!!!!!

The days trading so far has left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment is adding +0.39%. For comparison, the Dow is higher at +0.25%, the Nasdaq +0.25%, and the S&P 500 0.24%. Praise God for a day in the green.

S&P 500 rises as investors await possible Iran and U.S. ceasefire: Live updates

Last weeks action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Hold. We are currently invested at 100/I. Our allocation is now -8.28% for the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:

More Prices & Returns

God bless, Scott 

***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.

I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future.

If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com.