01/12/15

Good Evening,

Oil went down again today and so did the market. I decided to short the remainder of my oil stocks and buy them back later as this oil market obviously hasn’t found the bottom. While the major indices were all down there were some things that were working out there, such as leisure, entertainment, retail, home builders and real estate. Things that work when gas prices and interest rates are low….. At any rate, there isn’t any real damage done to the market yet. To put things into perspective, the S&P 500 is only about 3% off of its all time highs. All it needs is a decent bounce and it’ll be right back at record highs. The bulls need to get to work soon though. Today’s trading left our TSP allotment down -0.585% on the day. AMP out-performed with a gain of +0.105% . For comparison the Dow lost -0.54%, the S&P -0.81%, and the Nasdaq -0.84%. AMP is doing very well on down days! Why do I post the AMP results? #1 Some of the folks that take the newsletter are now retired and have invested in AMP. #2 I would like those of you still invested in Thrift to see what we are doing in AMP.

Wall St. falls; energy shares dragged down further by oil

 

 

The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Sell, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 34/C, 66/S. Our allocation is now -0.74% not including today’s results. Here are the latest posted results:
01/09/15
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.6241 16.9424 26.9944 35.9343 23.7625
$ Change 0.0009 0.0342 -0.2289 -0.2834 -0.0635
% Change day +0.01% +0.20% -0.84% -0.78% -0.27%
% Change week +0.04% +0.66% -0.61% -0.82% -1.88%
% Change month +0.05% +0.84% -0.63% -1.00% -1.88%
% Change year +0.05% +0.84% -0.63% -1.00% -1.88%
L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 17.4329 22.7934 24.652 26.1856 14.8278
$ Change -0.0216 -0.0742 -0.1048 -0.1299 -0.0830
% Change day -0.12% -0.32% -0.42% -0.49% -0.56%
% Change week -0.11% -0.45% -0.61% -0.71% -0.84%
% Change month -0.10% -0.46% -0.62% -0.73% -0.87%
% Change year -0.10% -0.46% -0.62% -0.73% -0.87%
Here’s what the C Fund looks like today: (Chart Courtesy of Stockcharts.com)
The C Fund is still a neutral with two out of four indicators in negative territory. The 100 EMA appears to be acting as short term support. I have set the next support at the 1970 level. There’s no serious damage yet on this chart. Volume today was average. As many of you know, I love to look at the S&P 500 chart because I feel like it gives the best overall picture of the health of the market. Carl Swenlin at Decision Point prefers to use the ETF version of this chart which is the SPY. The line of though is that since it is traded like a stock that it gives an even better picture of the market.
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After a few less-than-stellar sessions, we are due for a bounce. I wouldn’t be surprised to see one tomorrow. I’m definitely not selling yet. Also, as I mentioned earlier, the European Central Bank will be meeting on the 22nd (I think that’s the date). I like the rest of the trading world are expecting the European Central Bank to announce some additional QE that will result in a nice pop for stocks. However, in the incredibly stupid event that they fail to announce some QE, expect the market to tank for a few days……. That’s all for tonight. Have a nice evening and I’ll see you tomorrow.
God bless,
Scott8-)

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

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