Good Evening, It’s storming again! I hope I get to finish this blog. It seems like all it does is rain this year. I’m sure most of you and especially my friends in Texas will agree with me. The market underwent some consolidation today which was not at all unexpected given the big run up we had yesterday and with Greece looming again on Monday. A lot of the selling was likely due to traders being unsure of what will happen with the emergency meeting about Greece on Monday. It is a last ditch effort by the EU to come up with some type of lifeline that can be thrown to Greece to keep them in the EU. When all is said and done they could be printing their own currency before the week is out. I say that any selling as a result of this situation is an excellent dip buying opportunity. It is a win/win proposition. If Greece leaves the EU, it will lift the uncertainty that has been with the market for such a long time and the market hates uncertainty. Stocks will rally from the relief. If by some great miracle a last minute deal is forged, then we’ll will have the mother of all “Greece is saved” rallies. We will see. As you all know, I am for the Greek situation being over once and for all.
The consolidation left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment fell back -0.257%. For comparison the Dow dropped -0.55%, the Nasdaq -0.31%, and the S&P 500 -0.53%.
Wall St falls as Greek deadline looms; indexes up for week
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Buy, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 30/C, 70/S. Our allocation is now +5.36% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results.
| 06/18/15 | |||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 14.7467 | 16.794 | 28.2696 | 39.1077 | 26.3229 |
| $ Change | 0.0009 | -0.0265 | 0.2811 | 0.4058 | 0.1094 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | -0.16% | +1.00% | +1.05% | +0.42% |
| % Change week | +0.03% | +0.15% | +1.32% | +1.21% | -0.47% |
| % Change month | +0.10% | -1.16% | +0.78% | +1.92% | -0.82% |
| % Change year | +0.89% | -0.05% | +4.06% | +7.75% | +8.69% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 17.7716 | 23.6976 | 25.8689 | 27.655 | 15.769 |
| $ Change | 0.0297 | 0.0979 | 0.1393 | 0.1733 | 0.1112 |
| % Change day | +0.17% | +0.41% | +0.54% | +0.63% | +0.71% |
| % Change week | +0.20% | +0.41% | +0.52% | +0.61% | +0.66% |
| % Change month | +0.12% | +0.23% | +0.31% | +0.39% | +0.43% |
| % Change year | +1.84% | +3.49% | +4.28% | +4.84% | +5.42% |
Here are the charts. (All signals annotated with Green Circles)
C Fund: Price dropped, but remains over support at close to 210. All other indicators are unchanged. The C Fund remains at Neutral.
S Fund: Price remains over support at 94. All indicators are in positive configurations for an overall buy signal. An SCTR of 88.6 reflects the continued strength of this fund.
I Fund: The I Fund is perched precariously close to a sell signal with the 20 EMA so close to the 50 EMA that you must look at the thumbnail chart to see the separation. The Williams %R is currently the only indicator that is in a positive configuration. The SCTR is a weak 65.9. A good way to look at the SCTR (Stock Charts Technical Rating) is just like the grading scale that you used in school. In this case a 65.9 would be given a grade of D in comparison to other funds and stocks. You really want your money invested in a stock or fund with a grade of C or higher if at all possible. Hopefully, that quick example will give you a better idea of how we use this indicator.
F Fund: Bonds bounced again on the likelihood that the FED will be putting off rate increases for now based on their downgraded GDP forecast. As a result, the PMO, MAC D, and Williams %R are now in positive configurations moving the F Fund to an overall neutral signal. That said, this chart is nowhere near a buy signal with the 20 EMA below the 200 EMA. It still has a lot of technical damage to repair and must break out of this downtrend to do it.
For now it’s all about the emergency EU meeting on Monday. We’ll see if Greece is saved again or not and how the market reacts to the news. Keep praying that God will guide our group! Have a nice weekend and I’ll see you on Monday!
