Good Evening, One things for sure this is a wild ride and it’s not over. As you know by now the FBI sent another letter to congress stating that it would not pursue charges against Hillary Clinton. The market responded with a big rally in anticipation of a Clinton victory in tomorrows election. This all reminds me of the Brexit situation when both the polls and the market anticipated that Britain would not exit the EU. Well you know the rest of the story. Both the polls and the market were wrong and that made for a bad few days for the post Brexit market. Before you accuse me of taking sides, I am not, in this blog that is. I am only pointing out an incident where the market and the polls where wrong resulting in a nice five percent plus drop in short order. Anything can happen. That’s all I’m saying. Also, another thing, once one candidate or the other wins, then and only then will the market start to assess them. Right now, the only thing the market is celebrating is that it is more certain of what a Clinton presidency will bring and less certain of what will take place it Trump wins. What I am saying is that we could be in for a rough time in the long term either way. Both candidates have said and done things that could be construed and less than market friendly. As I always say. Watch your charts and play the action before you. Leave predictions to the fortune tellers and stick with the cold hard facts!
The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment gained +2.11%. For comparison, the Dow was up +2.08%, the Nasdaq +2.37%, and the S&P 500 +2.22%. Large caps had the slight edge today.
Wall Street soars as investors see higher chance of Clinton win
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Sell, F-Sell. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now -3.32% for the year not including the day’s gains. Here are the latest posted results:
| 11/04/16 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 15.1359 | 17.8696 | 28.6429 | 36.4512 | 23.8941 |
| $ Change | 0.0007 | 0.0213 | -0.0471 | 0.1240 | -0.1901 |
| % Change day | +0.00% | +0.12% | -0.16% | +0.34% | -0.79% |
| % Change week | +0.03% | +0.24% | -1.89% | -1.87% | -1.52% |
| % Change month | +0.02% | +0.16% | -1.87% | -2.28% | -1.53% |
| % Change year | +1.48% | +5.39% | +3.92% | +3.45% | -0.83% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 18.1424 | 23.7709 | 25.7103 | 27.2722 | 15.417 |
| $ Change | -0.0082 | -0.0258 | -0.0422 | -0.0519 | -0.0332 |
| % Change day | -0.05% | -0.11% | -0.16% | -0.19% | -0.21% |
| % Change week | -0.32% | -0.72% | -1.10% | -1.29% | -1.47% |
| % Change month | -0.34% | -0.76% | -1.14% | -1.34% | -1.53% |
| % Change year | +2.08% | +2.42% | +2.58% | +2.64% | +2.60% |
Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund:
S Fund: The S Fund whipsawed back to a neutral signal today when the 5 EMA passed back up though the 200 EMA. That’s the reason that we have a five day delay on all transaction after a new signal. We are due to recheck the prior signal on the 10th. I earlier said the 17th. That was a typo. We will recheck this signal on the 10th!!!
I Fund:
F Fund:
Well tomorrow is the day of reckoning for the market. I will be praying first for our nation and second for this group tonight and throughout the election. I won’t tell you how to vote. I will tell you not to take your vote for granted. This president may have the opportunity to appoint has many as 4 supreme court justices. Your entire future will depend on this person. Don’t take it lightly. Many have paid the ultimate price so that you and I can vote. So get out and vote! God bless this group and may God bless America at this critical time. Have a nice evening.
