Good Evening, Whew, what a week! This market has absolutely worn me out. If it was a human I’d diagnose it as bipolar. One day it’s flying high and the next day it’s scraping the bottom of the barrel. Today it sold off again on renewed concerns about the global economy. Also and maybe just as big of an issue as that was a Reuters poll of economists which found the risk of a U.S. recession in the next two years rose to 40 percent and found a significant shift in expectations toward fewer 2019 Federal Reserve interest rate rises. More uncertainty. Yeah that’s just what we need. All I can say is get comfortable in the G Fund. We may be there a while.
The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment was steady in the G Fund. For comparison, the Dow lost -2.02%, the Nasdaq -2.26%, and the S&P 500 -1.91%. It was a miserable day out there. Praise God for guiding us into the G Fund!
The weeks action left us with the following signals: C-Sell, S-Sell, I-Sell, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 100/G. Our allocation is now -3.97% for the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 12/13/18 |
|
|
|
Prior Prices |
| Fund |
G Fund |
F Fund |
C Fund |
S Fund |
I Fund |
| Price |
15.9687 |
17.9587 |
37.98 |
46.4201 |
27.5148 |
| $ Change |
0.0012 |
0.0034 |
-0.0014 |
-0.5602 |
-0.0253 |
| % Change day |
+0.01% |
+0.02% |
+0.00% |
-1.19% |
-0.09% |
| % Change week |
+0.05% |
-0.06% |
+0.69% |
-0.94% |
+0.85% |
| % Change month |
+0.11% |
+0.80% |
-3.90% |
-5.74% |
-1.97% |
| % Change year |
+2.76% |
-0.86% |
+0.98% |
-4.22% |
-10.83% |
| |
L INC |
L 2020 |
L 2030 |
L 2040 |
L 2050 |
| Price |
19.8348 |
27.1245 |
30.4328 |
32.8837 |
18.9201 |
| $ Change |
-0.0064 |
-0.0151 |
-0.0381 |
-0.0520 |
-0.0361 |
| % Change day |
-0.03% |
-0.06% |
-0.13% |
-0.16% |
-0.19% |
| % Change week |
+0.14% |
+0.18% |
+0.31% |
+0.35% |
+0.37% |
| % Change month |
-0.59% |
-0.98% |
-2.08% |
-2.52% |
-2.91% |
| % Change year |
+1.45% |
+0.87% |
-0.99% |
-1.78% |
-2.46% |
Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund:
S Fund:
I Fund:
F Fund:
In technical analysis it is considered to be a bear market when the 50 EMA passes down through the 200 EMA. If you’ll take a look at all the charts above I think you’ll find that the C, S, and I funds qualify. Our task now is to monitor our charts to see when a new uptrend is established. It may be a matter of weeks or it may be a matter of months. The key is not to get impatient! There will be plenty of time to jump back in when it heads back up. Don’t pay attention to the serial bottom callers that will come out now. If you listen to them they will suck you back in for a good loss. Your charts will tell you when the time is right!!! It’s not important to be in the market at the exact bottom. It is only important to be there when it is moving back up. Don’t be greedy! Protect your capital. That’s all for tonight. Have a nice weekend and I’ll see you on Monday.
God bless, Scott 
***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future.
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at [email protected].
