Good Evening, News of a new round of trade talks between the US and China and a good preliminary jobs report put the market back into rally mode today. It was announced that China and the US agreed to sit down and negotiate again in October. Even though it’s the same ole same ole the market ran with the news. Perhaps they will indeed have a meeting but I’m gonna have to see more before I’ll be comfortable with this rally. I must admit that some of the indicators that I watch are moving in the right direction but their not risk off just yet. An example of that would be the VIX which is still trading above 16. I like to see it below 16 before I invest in equities. As I have said many times before the VIX is not the only thing I watch but it sure gets my attention when it’s above 16. I’m inclined to be just a little more cautious. On the domestic front the ADP National Employment Report, considered a precursor to the Labor Department’s more comprehensive jobs report, showed U.S. private employers’ payrolls grew at the fastest pace in four months in August, led by big gains in service-sector jobs. We will see if the Department of Labor’s report is this rosy. Also worth noting is that if the jobs report is good then the Fed will be less inclined to follow through with another interest rate decrease and don’t forget the recent selloff we had when investors thought they might not decrease rates again. Just saying! The bottom line is this. We have some good news but right now it’s only news. We do not yet have a trade agreement or even a meeting for that matter. Just a promise of one. Nor do we have a solid government jobs report. This is a good rally but the next piece of news that comes out could send it in the other direction at the drop of a hat. We have a buy signal in the C Fund if your interested in jumping back in. Personally I still feel cautious so I’m in no hurry to make a move.

The days action left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment dropped -0.43%. For comparison, the Dow gained +1.41%, the Nasdaq +1.75%, and the S&P 500 +1.30%. We will see where this goes. Today’s move was no doubt strong but we need to be ever aware of how the high speed algorithm traders can push things around. They buy or sell large quantities of stock at the speed of light and suck slower investors into making trades which of course the algorithm traders profit from. They temporarily move the market in the opposite direction to fake investors out. You really have to ask yourself if each move is real or not…..So…is this one real???

The days action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 100/F. Our allocation is now +8.70% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:

God bless, Scott 

 

 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.

 

 

I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 

 

If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  [email protected].