11/07/19

Good Evening, The market moved higher this morning on news that the US and China would be rolling back some of the recent tariffs before signing phase one of a trade deal. However, the excitement was tempered in the afternoon after Reuters released a report saying that there was some internal opposition to the rolling back of sanctions in the Trump administration.  The major indices all ended the day with modest gains.  This is just another example of how this is a news driven market. A major difficulty faced by all fundamental traders is determining which news is accurate. Fake news is bought and sold just like real news. If the news is false the algorithms simply reverse the trade and profit from all those unfortunate traders that sold. That’s their game and that’s what makes this market so hard to trade. The only way to make any money is to throw out the short term market and only make decisions on intermediate and long term indicators. You must react only to the data on your charts from those time frames. The algorithms are shoving market around too much in the short term to be able to trust anything in that time frame. If you try to time the market based on short term information you will lose money. Trading on short term indicators will get you killed! The bottom line as I have said many times is that you must trade with your chart not your heart. If you can’t take the volatility then you need to sit this market out. When will things return to normal? Not for the foreseeable future. To beat this market you must go long……..

The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allocation posted a gain of +0.27%. For comparison, the Dow was up +0.66%, the Nasdaq +0.28%, and the S&P 500 +0.27%.

 

Dow, S&P 500 hit record closes as investors digest trade news

The days action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Sell. We are currently invested at 100/C. Our allocation is now +10.88% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results.

 

 

TSP Share Prices
11/06/19 Prior Prices
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 16.3062 19.645 44.8516 53.4088 31.7103
$ Change 0.0007 0.0533 0.0348 -0.2300 0.0447
% Change day +0.00% +0.27% +0.08% -0.43% +0.14%
% Change week +0.02% -0.35% +0.33% -0.10% +0.65%
% Change month +0.03% -0.50% +1.31% +1.35% +1.22%
% Change year +1.96% +8.28% +24.75% +21.45% +18.71%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 20.9372 28.9091 33.8805 37.1742 21.6574
$ Change 0.0055 0.0081 0.0125 0.0144 0.0080
% Change day +0.03% +0.03% +0.04% +0.04% +0.04%
% Change week +0.08% +0.09% +0.21% +0.25% +0.28%
% Change month +0.26% +0.32% +0.74% +0.89% +1.01%
% Change year +6.33% +7.89% +14.32% +16.74% +18.80%

More Prices & Returns

 

 Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund:
S Fund:
I Fund:
F Fund: The F Fund generated an overall sell signal when the 5 EMA moved below the 50 EMA and the Wms%R moved into a negative configuration. Two or more negative signals or the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA  or an SCTR below 40 generate a neutral signal. Any three indicators negative accompanied by both or either the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a sell signal. A buy signal is generated then the 5 EMA is above the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA, One or less indicators are negative, and the SCTR is higher than 40.

We’re moving in the right direction! That’s all for tonight. Have a nice evening and may God continue to bless your trades.

God bless, Scott Sunglasses
 
 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
 
 
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

  • 04/21/25

    Good Afternoon, The sky is falling right??? Well…..that all depends on your point of view. One thing we can all agree on though. This is a difficult market. It is not a pleasant market to trade. I’ve had more than a few comments and questions mostly off the record. It’s going down we’re losing money….…

  • 04/15/2024

    Good Day, You can read about anything you want to read about the current market. If you have a certain point of view you can find an article to assuage your feelings. It’s nice to feel good, but that kind of feel good doesn’t necessarily make you money. Just because you can find someone who…

  • 04/07/25

    Good Morning, I hate writing about things like this. Nobody really wants to hear it but it’s something that must be done. Are my message boards flooded? Oh yeah. You’ve got the combination of an unprecedented global event coupled with the fact that a lot of folks that are trading now never experienced a market…