Good Evening, It’s seems like a month has passed instead of just a week since the last blog. That just illustrates how fast the market is shifting these days. Today there was a change in leadership as the Dow and S&P 500 rallied. Throughout the pandemic stocks have pretty well fallen into two groups. Those that I have named stay at home stocks and those that I have named recovery stocks. Stay at home stocks are mostly but not entirely made up of tech stocks that benefited from folks staying and working from home. A couple good examples of those are Microsoft (MSFT) and Netfix (NFLX). Recovery Stocks are those that benefit when the economy opens back up. A few good examples of those are Hyatt Hotels (H), Walt Disney Company (DIS), and Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL). Today money rotated to the recovery stocks a large sum of which came from the stay at home stocks of which most coincidentally are in the Nasdaq. The end result is that the the Dow gained +2.17% and the S&P 500 gaining 1.23% with the Nasdaq lagging at +0.17%. Tech will not suffer long. You can bet on that! There are too many stocks like Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon that just refuse to lose. So why did I mention all this? This change in leadership means that stocks other than the precious few that have been leading the market higher in recent weeks are starting to participate in the rally and when the rally becomes broad based that means it has the legs to run higher. That of course is good for everybody concerned. It takes more than a few tech stocks to power the market to new records. It takes banks and energy stocks and retailers! It takes hospitality stocks, railroads and airlines. It takes them all! That means that the market is truly starting to recover and that also means that smaller companies will be participating in the new rally as we set records. So….what was beat up the most? Small caps and mid caps. How can that help us in Thrift? We have a fund that is made up of small caps and mid caps. It is the S Fund. Due to it’s make up it moves up fast in rallies. I often tell folks that owning the S Fund is like taking a fast elevator up but jumping out of the window coming down. In other words, you want to own it on the way up but not on the way down. Which brings me to this point. I check the charts everyday when the market closes and have been watching the S Fund carefully in recent weeks. The indicators on the chart for the S Fund have finally overtaken those of the C Fund. With that in mind, we are changing our allocation from 100/C to 100/S. As of the close of business tomorrow our allocation will be 100% S Fund.
The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allocation posted a gain of +1.23%. For comparison, the Dow added +2.17%, the Nasdaq just +0.17%, and the S&P 500 +1.23%. Praise God for such a good day!
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 100/C but are putting in an interfund transfer to 100/S effective upon tomorrows close of business. Our allocation is now +7.94% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:
05/25/20 | Prior Prices | ||||
Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
Price | 16.4345 | 20.7405 | 43.557 | 49.1967 | 26.7525 |
$ Change | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
% Change day | +0.00% | +0.00% | +0.00% | +0.00% | +0.00% |
% Change week | +0.00% | +0.00% | +0.00% | +0.00% | +0.00% |
% Change month | +0.04% | +0.24% | +1.67% | +5.05% | -0.59% |
% Change year | +0.51% | +5.19% | -7.84% | -12.58% | -18.23% |
L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
Price | 20.8058 | 28.6085 | 32.5185 | 35.2792 | 20.3405 |
$ Change | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
% Change day | +0.00% | +0.00% | +0.00% | +0.00% | +0.00% |
% Change week | +0.00% | +0.00% | +0.00% | +0.00% | +0.00% |
% Change month | +0.37% | +0.39% | +0.91% | +1.07% | +1.23% |
% Change year | -1.80% | -2.38% | -6.70% | -8.20% | -9.53% |
Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund:
S Fund:
I Fund:
F Fund:
Nothing new to add here. Don’t forget that we’re moving our money to the S Fund. That’s all for tonight. Keep praying that God will deliver our nation from COVID-19! Have a nice evening and may God continue to bless your trades!

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